Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Petersen, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
13.9% to 29.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace3.98
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.97 2.79 3.71 4.62 5.44
FIP
2.74 3.21 3.73 4.26 4.73
K%
15.8% 18.5% 21.5% 24.5% 27.3%
BB%
6.9% 8.3% 9.9% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.2%
15 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
3 -42 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
92
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
46
K%24.5%
63
Whiff%22.9%
49
xwOBA allowed0.291
71 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Petersen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-25: 0.2922026-05-26: 0.2922026-05-28: 0.3002026-05-29: 0.3002026-05-30: 0.3002026-05-31: 0.2912026-06-01: 0.2912026-06-02: 0.291 2026-05-25 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Petersen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petersen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.8%Slider: 27.3%Changeup: 16.9% MIX FF 56%SL 27%CH 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Petersen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 0.8FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.3SLCH: HB -0.3, IVB 2.2CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.3% 192 108 limited sample
SL 27.4% 95 105 limited sample
CH 17.3% 60 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.306 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Slider 41%, Sinker 2%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.10
K% Δ+0.021
Sample22.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.2----
Batters Faced142----
K%22.4%13.9% to 29.4%+/- 7.8%
BB%9.5%5.6% to 13.4%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%22.5%14.6% to 28.5%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.260.55 to 2.09+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3270.254 to 0.398+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed8.0%3.5% to 11.9%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.882.34 to 6.87+/- 2.26
FIP4.202.90 to 5.49+/- 1.30
WHIP1.3391.016 to 1.677+/- 0.331
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

78 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%15.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

95 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%16.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.3%