Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Peterson, David

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
17.0% to 26.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace5.39
ERA rolling p504.99
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.77 4.35 4.99 5.64 6.22
FIP
3.42 3.75 4.12 4.49 4.82
K%
17.9% 18.8% 19.8% 20.9% 21.8%
BB%
8.1% 8.7% 9.3% 10.0% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.57
15
ERA5.39
19
BB%9.5%
43
K%19.2%
30
xwOBA allowed0.339
24
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
17
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
26
Whiff%20.6%
31 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+95
11
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+107
87
Changeup Stuff+103
63
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peterson, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-25: 0.3382026-08-26: 0.3382026-08-27: 0.3382026-08-28: 0.3382026-08-29: 0.3382026-08-30: 0.3372026-08-31: 0.3372026-09-01: 0.3372026-09-02: 0.3372026-09-03: 0.3392026-09-04: 0.3392026-09-05: 0.339 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peterson, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.6%4-Seam Fastball: 23.4%Slider: 22.2%Changeup: 13.5%Curveball: 10.3% SI31% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 31%FF 23%SL 22%CH 13%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peterson, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.4 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.8% 399 98 qualified
SL 23.2% 301 107 qualified
FB 22.4% 290 95 qualified
CB 11.9% 154 100 limited sample
CH 11.8% 153 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.331 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.40
K% Δ-0.015
Sample134.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.1----
Batters Faced623----
K%20.7%17.0% to 26.1%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.9%7.1% to 11.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.4%19.5% to 27.7%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.070.41 to 1.65+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3400.295 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed7.5%5.1% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.982.46 to 5.62+/- 1.58
FIP4.123.01 to 4.83+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4881.142 to 1.710+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

660 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%23.8%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

2176 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%17.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel7.3%