Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Cutter 31%, Sinker 23%.
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026
Rasmussen, Drew
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TB
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.90 |
| ERA current pace | 2.78 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.31 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
ERA
2.06
2.65
3.31
3.97
4.57
FIP
3.46
3.71
3.99
4.27
4.52
K%
18.9%
20.3%
22.0%
23.6%
25.0%
BB%
4.4%
5.0%
5.8%
6.5%
7.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.3%
93
Barrel allowed8.9%
35
-26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
73
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
78
K%21.9%
48
Whiff%20.9%
32
xwOBA allowed0.289
73
+28 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
34%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 34.6% | 280 | 104 | qualified |
| FB | 27.2% | 220 | 114 | qualified |
| SI | 20.5% | 166 | 108 | limited sample |
| CH | 11.5% | 93 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 4.0% | 32 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 2.3% | 19 | 101 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.02 |
| K% Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 63.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 137.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 554 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.9% | 17.1% to 27.9% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.4% to 8.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 20.6% | 15.9% to 25.0% | +/- 4.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.60 to 1.85 | +/- 0.63 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.263 to 0.306 | +/- 0.021 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.1% | 3.9% to 9.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.80 | 1.58 to 5.13 | +/- 1.77 |
| FIP | 4.01 | 2.65 to 4.15 | +/- 0.75 |
| WHIP | 1.207 | 0.865 to 1.397 | +/- 0.266 |
vs LHH
913 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHH
1062 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.265 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |