Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Rasmussen, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
76
Arsenal7 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace2.95
ERA rolling p503.22
Observed weight72%
ERA
1.85 2.50 3.22 3.94 4.59
FIP
2.71 2.99 3.29 3.59 3.87
K%
22.0% 23.1% 24.3% 25.4% 26.5%
BB%
4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.8% 6.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.00
93
ERA2.95
81
BB%4.8%
97
K%25.2%
71 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
86 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
65
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
76
Whiff%22.2%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Cutter Stuff+105
85
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+109
96
Sinker Stuff+109
94
Changeup Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rasmussen, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-08-22: 0.2742026-08-23: 0.2742026-08-24: 0.2742026-08-25: 0.2762026-08-26: 0.2762026-08-27: 0.2762026-08-28: 0.2762026-08-29: 0.2762026-08-30: 0.2762026-08-31: 0.2752026-09-01: 0.2752026-09-02: 0.275 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rasmussen, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.1%Cutter: 28.9%Sinker: 23.1%Changeup: 12.3%Curveball: 3.8%Sweeper: 2.8% FF29% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 29%FC 29%SI 23%CH 12%CU 4%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rasmussen, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphCutter: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSinker: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.8 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.5 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.4% 414 105 qualified
FB 27.9% 380 112 qualified
SI 22.2% 303 109 qualified
CH 13.0% 178 101 limited sample
CB 3.7% 50 103 limited sample
SL 2.9% 39 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Cutter 31%, Sinker 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.84
K% Δ+0.033
Sample149.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.6----
Batters Faced553----
K%21.9%17.1% to 27.9%+/- 5.4%
BB%6.2%4.4% to 8.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.6%15.9% to 25.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.60 to 1.85+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3190.263 to 0.306+/- 0.021
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.9% to 9.2%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.801.58 to 5.13+/- 1.77
FIP4.012.65 to 4.15+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2070.865 to 1.398+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

913 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%21.1%
BB%5.9%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

1062 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%19.5%
BB%5.3%
Barrel5.5%