Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Sousa, Bennett

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.4% K%
Range
17.4% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal4 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.28
ERA current pace6.53
ERA rolling p504.29
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.66 3.43 4.29 5.14 5.91
FIP
2.89 3.33 3.81 4.30 4.73
K%
19.5% 22.1% 25.0% 27.8% 30.4%
BB%
6.9% 8.4% 10.0% 11.7% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.88
2
ERA6.53
6
BB%13.9%
8 -50 vs proj
K%23.1%
58 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
56
Barrel allowed10.3%
13 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
38
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
89
Whiff%30.4%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Slider Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+96
15
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 71%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

5 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sousa, Bennett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-01: 0.3152026-09-02: 0.3152026-09-03: 0.3152026-09-04: 0.3092026-09-05: 0.308 2026-09-01 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sousa, Bennett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sousa, Bennett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 70.6%4-Seam Fastball: 22.7%Sinker: 6.7% SL71% · 86 mphprimary pitch SL 71%FF 23%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sousa, Bennett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 71% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 70.2% 229 102 qualified
FB 21.2% 69 96 limited sample
SI 7.4% 24 98 limited sample
FC 1.2% 4 57 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.222 vs 0.243 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 1%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.00
K% Δ-0.029
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.5----
Batters Faced134----
K%26.4%17.4% to 32.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%8.2%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%30.1%24.9% to 37.0%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.110.26 to 1.78+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3110.206 to 0.324+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.3%3.9% to 12.2%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.471.45 to 5.75+/- 2.15
FIP3.462.23 to 4.66+/- 1.21
WHIP1.1850.795 to 1.588+/- 0.397
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

142 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%25.9%
BB%6.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%22.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel8.1%