Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Thompson, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
12.9% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.45
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.92 2.64 3.45 4.25 4.97
FIP
2.90 3.39 3.92 4.46 4.94
K%
12.1% 14.5% 17.2% 19.9% 22.3%
BB%
5.1% 6.3% 7.7% 9.0% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.2%
59
Barrel allowed5.4%
78 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo89.3
3
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
85
K%14.4%
5 -17 vs proj
Whiff%16.9%
8
xwOBA allowed0.292
70 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thompson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2922026-05-24: 0.2922026-05-25: 0.2922026-05-26: 0.2922026-05-28: 0.2922026-05-29: 0.2922026-05-30: 0.2922026-05-31: 0.2922026-06-01: 0.292 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thompson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thompson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 65.9%Slider: 26.5%4-Seam Fastball: 7.6% MIX SI 66%SL 26%FF 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thompson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 3.6SISL: HB -0.6, IVB 3.2SLFF: HB -0.6, IVB 2.3FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 69.9% 181 99 limited sample
SL 24.7% 64 106 limited sample
FB 5.4% 14 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.306 vs 0.277 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Slider 41%, 4-Seam Fastball 8%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.89
K% Δ-0.041
Sample22.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.2----
Batters Faced162----
K%18.6%12.9% to 26.8%+/- 7.0%
BB%7.2%4.3% to 11.1%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%20.0%16.4% to 26.3%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.100.41 to 1.85+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3220.249 to 0.372+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.6% to 11.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.892.27 to 6.25+/- 1.99
FIP4.132.62 to 5.27+/- 1.32
WHIP1.3261.053 to 1.721+/- 0.334
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

418 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%15.1%
BB%7.6%
Barrel7.3%
vs RHH

738 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%18.3%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.2%