Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Webb, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace2.66
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.99 2.66 3.40 4.15 4.82
FIP
3.33 3.74 4.20 4.65 5.06
K%
19.8% 21.9% 24.2% 26.5% 28.5%
BB%
5.9% 7.2% 8.5% 9.9% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
64 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
4 -53 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed50.7%
2
K%27.4%
81 +28 vs proj
Whiff%31.2%
92 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

11 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Webb, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-19: 0.3362026-05-21: 0.3452026-05-23: 0.3352026-05-24: 0.3352026-05-25: 0.3352026-05-26: 0.3432026-05-28: 0.3322026-05-29: 0.3322026-05-30: 0.3322026-05-31: 0.3322026-06-01: 0.327 2026-05-19 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Webb, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.5%Changeup: 36.6%Sweeper: 8.7%Curveball: 5.2% MIX FF 49%CH 37%ST 9%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.4CHST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.4STCU: HB -0.1, IVB 4.4CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.5% 217 104 qualified
CH 36.5% 157 111 limited sample
SL 7.4% 32 104 limited sample
CB 5.6% 24 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Changeup 35%, Sweeper 21%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.93
K% Δ+0.047
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.6----
Batters Faced168----
K%22.7%17.3% to 29.2%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.0%6.3% to 13.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.2%20.7% to 30.2%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.190.64 to 2.13+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.259 to 0.364+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.591.98 to 5.76+/- 1.89
FIP3.942.99 to 5.30+/- 1.16
WHIP1.2810.985 to 1.539+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

468 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

693 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.0%
BB%8.3%
Barrel7.2%