Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Webb, Logan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
19.4% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced starter Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.51
ERA current pace3.75
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.74 3.19 3.68 4.18 4.63
FIP
2.80 3.06 3.34 3.62 3.87
K%
18.3% 19.2% 20.3% 21.3% 22.2%
BB%
4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 6.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA3.75
58
BB%5.9%
89
K%19.4%
31 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
60 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
15
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
47
Whiff%18.5%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+106
83
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+102
54
Slider Stuff+104
71
Cutter Stuff+100
37
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Webb, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-08-20: 0.2952026-08-21: 0.2952026-08-22: 0.2952026-08-23: 0.2952026-08-24: 0.2952026-08-25: 0.3032026-08-26: 0.3032026-08-27: 0.3062026-08-28: 0.3062026-08-29: 0.3062026-08-30: 0.3062026-08-31: 0.306 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Webb, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 28.8%Changeup: 24.5%Sweeper: 20.1%Cutter: 13.4%4-Seam Fastball: 13.2% SI29% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 29%CH 25%ST 20%FC 13%FF 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Webb, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.2% 334 102 qualified
CH 22.2% 217 106 qualified
SL 21.4% 209 104 qualified
FB 12.8% 125 96 limited sample
FC 9.5% 93 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 34%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ-0.023
Sample150.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings155.1----
Batters Faced644----
K%21.6%19.4% to 28.7%+/- 4.6%
BB%5.8%3.8% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.6%18.3% to 25.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.080.43 to 1.57+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3270.271 to 0.332+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.3% to 10.9%+/- 2.3%
ERA3.522.54 to 4.98+/- 1.22
FIP3.322.43 to 3.81+/- 0.69
WHIP1.2311.077 to 1.471+/- 0.197
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2330 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%22.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

2292 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%22.7%
BB%4.8%
Barrel7.7%