Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Hill, Tim

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
14.7% K%
Range
7.4% to 21.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace2.53
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.98 2.82 3.76 4.70 5.54
FIP
3.11 3.75 4.46 5.17 5.80
K%
8.1% 10.5% 13.1% 15.7% 18.0%
BB%
4.5% 5.8% 7.2% 8.6% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
76
Barrel allowed4.9%
84 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo88.4
2
Hard-hit allowed47.6%
8
K%11.7%
1
Whiff%9.1%
0
xwOBA allowed0.334
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 78%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hill, Tim · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2872026-05-19: 0.2902026-05-21: 0.2882026-05-23: 0.2952026-05-24: 0.2952026-05-25: 0.2972026-05-26: 0.2912026-05-28: 0.2912026-05-29: 0.2912026-05-30: 0.2912026-05-31: 0.2912026-06-01: 0.334 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hill, Tim · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 59%59%Whiff: 9%9%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Tim · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 77.5%Slider: 12.8%4-Seam Fastball: 9.7% MIX SI 78%SL 13%FF 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Tim · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.2, IVB 3.5SISL: HB 0.2, IVB 3.2SLFF: HB -0.8, IVB 2.7FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 80.1% 238 104 qualified
SL 10.4% 31 99 limited sample
FB 9.4% 28 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 82%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%, Cutter 5%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.62
K% Δ-0.030
Sample24.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.4----
Batters Faced173----
K%14.7%7.4% to 21.0%+/- 6.8%
BB%7.4%4.2% to 11.3%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%14.0%10.6% to 21.9%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.270.32 to 1.99+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3260.256 to 0.379+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.1%2.6% to 10.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.152.01 to 6.68+/- 2.34
FIP4.552.84 to 6.37+/- 1.77
WHIP1.3631.007 to 1.677+/- 0.335
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

829 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%12.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHH

952 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%11.1%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.6%