Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Ohtani, Shohei

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
22.2% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
98
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
90
Pitching7 metrics
88
Speed3 metrics
55
Plate skills15 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.9%
98
Exit velocity93.4
97
Hard-hit%52.3%
97
xBA0.406
98
xSLG0.783
98
xwOBA0.402
99
BB%13.1%
92
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.9%
44
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
63
Barrel allowed3.5%
95
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
92
Whiff%29.5%
91
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · DH
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
33
Sprint Speed27.7 · DH
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
63
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Slider Stuff+111
97
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.331 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.367 · insufficient sample
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405 · validated
2
Sinker Stuff+84
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ohtani, Shohei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.402 2026-08-21: 0.4102026-08-22: 0.4102026-08-23: 0.4102026-08-24: 0.4102026-08-25: 0.4072026-08-26: 0.4072026-08-27: 0.4072026-08-28: 0.4042026-08-29: 0.4042026-08-30: 0.4032026-08-31: 0.4022026-09-01: 0.402 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ohtani, Shohei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Sweeper: 28.3%Curveball: 10.6%Split-Finger: 9.2%Sinker: 6.3%Slider: 1.0% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 28%CU 11%FS 9%SI 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphFS89 mphSinker: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 413 107 qualified
SL 34.0% 289 111 qualified
CB 10.7% 91 99 limited sample
SI 5.6% 48 84 limited sample
FC 1.1% 9 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 21%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample93.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.1----
Batters Faced583----
K%27.8%22.2% to 35.5%+/- 6.7%
BB%7.2%5.2% to 9.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.9%21.8% to 31.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.64 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2710.241 to 0.316+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.331.91 to 4.83+/- 1.46
FIP3.102.08 to 4.13+/- 1.02
WHIP0.9970.816 to 1.385+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1099 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

1187 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%25.5%
BB%6.0%
Barrel5.6%