Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Rangel, Alan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
10.3% to 27.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace5.88
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.68 3.67 4.78 5.89 6.88
FIP
3.12 3.71 4.38 5.04 5.64
K%
16.9% 19.7% 22.8% 25.9% 28.7%
BB%
6.6% 8.1% 9.8% 11.4% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.69
7
ERA5.88
13
BB%10.6%
31
K%23.6%
60 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
44
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo92.9
24
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
95
Whiff%22.8%
49 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-06
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+99
14
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+100
28
Slider Stuff+106
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rangel, Alan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-08-26: 0.3172026-08-27: 0.3172026-08-28: 0.3172026-08-29: 0.3172026-08-30: 0.3172026-08-31: 0.3172026-09-01: 0.3172026-09-02: 0.3172026-09-03: 0.3172026-09-04: 0.3182026-09-05: 0.3182026-09-06: 0.318 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rangel, Alan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rangel, Alan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 37.3%4-Seam Fastball: 34.2%Slider: 16.5%Curveball: 12.0% CH37% · 81 mphprimary pitch CH 37%FF 34%SL 16%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rangel, Alan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 80.8 mphCH81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphSlider: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 69″ drop, 73.2 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 37.1% 43 99 limited sample
FB 36.2% 42 104 limited sample
CB 14.7% 17 99 limited sample
SL 12.1% 14 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Changeup 31%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.20
K% Δ+0.027
Sample26.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.1----
Batters Faced131----
K%20.9%10.3% to 27.3%+/- 8.5%
BB%10.2%5.4% to 14.2%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%20.4%10.2% to 24.9%+/- 7.4%
HR/91.330.24 to 1.76+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3170.215 to 0.372+/- 0.079
Barrel% Allowed9.1%4.3% to 14.3%+/- 5.0%
ERA4.680.21 to 5.87+/- 2.83
FIP4.112.59 to 5.98+/- 1.70
WHIP1.4710.787 to 1.736+/- 0.474
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

25 career BF

xwOBA0.206
K%10.1%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

25 career BF

xwOBA0.198
K%10.8%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.2%