Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 43%, Sweeper 41%, 4-Seam Fastball 13%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Bazardo, Eduard
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.47 |
| ERA current pace | 2.40 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.02 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
ERA
1.57
2.26
3.02
3.78
4.47
FIP
2.88
3.26
3.69
4.11
4.49
K%
19.8%
21.8%
24.1%
26.4%
28.5%
BB%
5.4%
6.6%
7.9%
9.2%
10.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
62
ERA2.40
89
BB%7.5%
68
K%23.0%
54
xwOBA allowed0.308
56
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
+15 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
62
Hard-hit allowed40.8%
37
Whiff%20.2%
26
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
63%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 63.9% | 289 | 101 | qualified |
| SL | 35.4% | 160 | 105 | limited sample |
| FB | 0.7% | 3 | 89 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.00 |
| K% Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 41.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 157 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.0% | 18.8% to 32.6% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.1% to 12.9% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 20.5% | 14.9% to 24.8% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.22 | 0.55 to 2.08 | +/- 0.77 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.245 to 0.356 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 3.5% to 13.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| ERA | 3.40 | 1.74 to 5.80 | +/- 2.03 |
| FIP | 4.00 | 2.84 to 5.09 | +/- 1.12 |
| WHIP | 1.174 | 0.894 to 1.477 | +/- 0.292 |
vs LHH
280 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 10.3% |
vs RHH
366 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 23.6% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |