Duran, Jhoan
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.13 |
| ERA current pace | 1.62 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.76 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 49.4% | 76 | 102 | limited sample |
| CB | 18.2% | 28 | 93 | limited sample |
| CH | 16.2% | 25 | 96 | limited sample |
| SL | 16.2% | 25 | 84 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.73 |
| K% Δ | +0.074 |
| Sample | 20.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 175 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.8% | 20.6% to 36.8% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 4.6% to 12.8% | +/- 4.1% |
| Whiff% | 27.5% | 23.8% to 35.1% | +/- 5.6% |
| HR/9 | 0.81 | 0.43 to 1.63 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.288 | 0.227 to 0.341 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.2% | 2.5% to 10.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.35 | 1.47 to 5.39 | +/- 1.96 |
| FIP | 3.01 | 2.08 to 4.62 | +/- 1.27 |
| WHIP | 1.256 | 0.982 to 1.665 | +/- 0.341 |
556 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 28.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
567 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 26.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |