Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Duran, Jhoan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
20.6% to 36.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
96
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
91
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.61
ERA rolling p502.42
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.03 1.69 2.42 3.15 3.80
FIP
1.42 1.85 2.32 2.79 3.22
K%
25.1% 27.3% 29.7% 32.2% 34.4%
BB%
4.7% 5.8% 7.0% 8.2% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.04
90
ERA1.61
98
BB%4.7%
97 +49 vs proj
K%32.7%
97 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.221
100 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.3%
98 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo100.4
99
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
40
Whiff%32.2%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+92
6
Curveball Stuff+99
10
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+92
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.221 2026-08-25: 0.2272026-08-26: 0.2272026-08-27: 0.2252026-08-28: 0.2252026-08-29: 0.2252026-08-30: 0.2262026-08-31: 0.2262026-09-01: 0.2212026-09-02: 0.2212026-09-03: 0.2212026-09-04: 0.2212026-09-05: 0.221 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 48.6%4-Seam Fastball: 25.6%Sweeper: 11.0%Knuckle Curve: 9.2%Changeup: 5.5% FS49% · 98 mphprimary pitch FS 49%FF 26%ST 11%KC 9%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 97.6 mphFS98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 100.4 mphFF100 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.3 mphST89 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 88.5 mphKC89 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.3% 132 105 limited sample
SL 21.1% 59 92 limited sample
CB 17.9% 50 99 limited sample
CH 10.4% 29 92 limited sample
SI 2.5% 7 110 limited sample
FC 0.7% 2 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Knuckle Curve 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.74
K% Δ+0.059
Sample53.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.2----
Batters Faced174----
K%26.8%20.6% to 36.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%27.5%23.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.810.43 to 1.63+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2880.227 to 0.341+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed6.2%2.5% to 10.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.351.48 to 5.39+/- 1.96
FIP3.012.08 to 4.62+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2560.982 to 1.665+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

556 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%28.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

567 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%
Barrel5.4%