Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Duran, Jhoan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
20.6% to 36.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
97
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal5 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.38
ERA rolling p502.50
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.06 1.74 2.50 3.25 3.93
FIP
1.55 1.99 2.48 2.97 3.41
K%
25.3% 27.9% 30.8% 33.7% 36.3%
BB%
4.9% 6.2% 7.6% 9.1% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.91
95
ERA1.38
99
BB%5.1%
95 +50 vs proj
K%37.2%
99 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.229
99 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.9%
93 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo100.2
99
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
16
Whiff%35.2%
99 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+91
3
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+85
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.229 2026-07-07: 0.2332026-07-08: 0.2332026-07-09: 0.2272026-07-10: 0.2272026-07-11: 0.2322026-07-12: 0.2322026-07-13: 0.2292026-07-14: 0.2292026-07-15: 0.2292026-07-16: 0.2292026-07-17: 0.2292026-07-18: 0.229 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 35%35%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 45.1%4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Knuckle Curve: 10.3%Sweeper: 10.3%Changeup: 7.4% FS45% · 97 mphprimary pitch FS 45%FF 27%KC 10%ST 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 97.4 mphFS97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 100.2 mphFF100 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 88.3 mphKC88 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.7 mphST89 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 93 105 limited sample
CB 19.7% 38 98 limited sample
SL 18.1% 35 85 limited sample
CH 14.0% 27 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Knuckle Curve 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.97
K% Δ+0.104
Sample35.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.3----
Batters Faced174----
K%26.8%20.6% to 36.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%27.5%23.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.810.43 to 1.63+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2880.227 to 0.341+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed6.2%2.5% to 10.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.351.48 to 5.39+/- 1.96
FIP3.012.08 to 4.62+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2560.982 to 1.665+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

556 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%28.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

567 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%
Barrel5.4%