Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Duran, Jhoan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.8% K%
Range
20.6% to 36.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.62
ERA rolling p502.76
Observed weight25%
ERA
1.21 1.94 2.76 3.58 4.31
FIP
1.89 2.36 2.89 3.42 3.90
K%
22.6% 25.5% 28.9% 32.2% 35.2%
BB%
5.5% 7.0% 8.7% 10.4% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
67 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
67
Fastball velo100.2
99
Hard-hit allowed47.8%
7
K%34.2%
97 +18 vs proj
Whiff%33.3%
96 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.255
91 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-06-01: 0.255 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 44.1%4-Seam Fastball: 26.9%Knuckle Curve: 9.9%Changeup: 9.6%Sweeper: 9.6% MIX FS 44%FF 27%KC 10%CH 10%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FS: HB 0.1, IVB 2.0FSFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.1FFKC: HB 0.2, IVB 3.7KCCH: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8CHST: HB -0.9, IVB 3.2ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.4% 76 102 limited sample
CB 18.2% 28 93 limited sample
CH 16.2% 25 96 limited sample
SL 16.2% 25 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Knuckle Curve 19%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.73
K% Δ+0.074
Sample20.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.5----
Batters Faced175----
K%26.8%20.6% to 36.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%27.5%23.8% to 35.1%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.810.43 to 1.63+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2880.227 to 0.341+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed6.2%2.5% to 10.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.351.47 to 5.39+/- 1.96
FIP3.012.08 to 4.62+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2560.982 to 1.665+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

556 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%28.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

567 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%26.1%
BB%7.2%
Barrel5.4%