Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Gil, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.2% to 30.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
16
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
20
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace6.05
ERA rolling p504.59
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.67 4.11 4.59 5.08 5.52
FIP
4.34 4.81 5.34 5.86 6.33
K%
15.8% 17.8% 20.1% 22.3% 24.3%
BB%
8.1% 9.1% 10.3% 11.5% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
33
ERA6.05
11
BB%10.7%
27
K%14.9%
6 -46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.385
3 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
16 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed45.3%
11
Whiff%17.2%
8 -45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Changeup Stuff+105
72
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Sinker Stuff+91
5
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gil, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.385 2026-07-08: 0.3852026-07-09: 0.3852026-07-10: 0.3852026-07-11: 0.3852026-07-12: 0.3852026-07-13: 0.3852026-07-14: 0.3852026-07-15: 0.3852026-07-16: 0.3852026-07-17: 0.3852026-07-18: 0.3852026-07-19: 0.385 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gil, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gil, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.5%Slider: 23.8%Changeup: 19.2%Sinker: 9.5% FF47% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 24%CH 19%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gil, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.5 mphCH90 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.1% 152 102 limited sample
SL 21.1% 71 96 limited sample
CH 20.5% 69 105 limited sample
SI 13.4% 45 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.269 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 26%, Changeup 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.82
K% Δ-0.080
Sample27.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.7----
Batters Faced610----
K%22.9%18.2% to 30.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%11.0%8.0% to 13.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%23.4%20.4% to 28.8%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.390.74 to 1.95+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3240.266 to 0.347+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.5% to 11.4%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.232.54 to 5.03+/- 1.24
FIP4.452.94 to 5.61+/- 1.34
WHIP1.3671.037 to 1.556+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

539 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%19.7%
BB%12.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

609 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%22.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel7.3%