Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 52%, 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Sinker 13%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Muñoz, Andrés
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 2.68 |
| ERA current pace | 4.79 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.34 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
ERA
1.47
2.36
3.34
4.32
5.21
FIP
1.84
2.51
3.27
4.02
4.69
K%
26.0%
28.7%
31.7%
34.7%
37.4%
BB%
6.5%
8.0%
9.7%
11.3%
12.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
59
+30 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.1%
9
-30 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed48.3%
6
K%35.8%
99
Whiff%41.3%
100
xwOBA allowed0.330
36
-42 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
57%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 59.0% | 210 | 99 | qualified |
| FB | 25.6% | 91 | 102 | limited sample |
| SI | 11.2% | 40 | 106 | limited sample |
| CH | 4.2% | 15 | 91 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +2.00 |
| K% Δ | +0.075 |
| Sample | 24.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 169 | -- | -- |
| K% | 28.3% | 23.6% to 39.2% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 5.7% to 14.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| Whiff% | 32.9% | 28.8% to 40.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 0.99 | 0.08 to 1.72 | +/- 0.82 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.281 | 0.207 to 0.343 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 3.9% to 12.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 2.79 | 0.36 to 5.31 | +/- 2.47 |
| FIP | 3.21 | 1.70 to 5.48 | +/- 1.89 |
| WHIP | 1.135 | 0.807 to 1.517 | +/- 0.355 |
vs LHH
556 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.265 |
| K% | 29.3% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
vs RHH
601 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 28.5% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |