Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Suarez, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal5 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace0.56
ERA rolling p502.56
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.20 1.84 2.56 3.28 3.93
FIP
2.35 2.76 3.21 3.66 4.07
K%
17.9% 20.5% 23.3% 26.2% 28.8%
BB%
3.7% 4.9% 6.1% 7.3% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.90
96
ERA0.56
100
BB%5.2%
94 +23 vs proj
K%23.1%
55
xwOBA allowed0.282
80 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
91 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo98.5
96
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
62
Whiff%22.2%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+108
90
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+110
94
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.282 2026-07-07: 0.2822026-07-08: 0.2822026-07-09: 0.2822026-07-10: 0.2822026-07-11: 0.2822026-07-12: 0.2822026-07-13: 0.2822026-07-14: 0.2822026-07-15: 0.2822026-07-16: 0.2822026-07-17: 0.2822026-07-18: 0.282 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.5%Changeup: 31.5%Cutter: 14.5%Sinker: 7.5% FF47% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 47%CH 31%FC 14%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphChangeup: 31% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphCH91 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.0 mphFC96 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.7% 185 110 limited sample
CH 31.0% 113 108 limited sample
FC 13.7% 50 101 limited sample
SI 4.7% 17 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Changeup 24%, Sinker 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.87
K% Δ-0.006
Sample34.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.2----
Batters Faced159----
K%23.7%17.2% to 33.3%+/- 8.0%
BB%7.3%4.2% to 11.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.4%
HR/90.990.45 to 1.93+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3100.251 to 0.353+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.3% to 13.8%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.431.83 to 6.08+/- 2.13
FIP3.402.74 to 5.07+/- 1.16
WHIP1.1550.831 to 1.531+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

426 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%23.1%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

480 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%22.1%
BB%4.8%
Barrel9.7%