Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Suarez, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace0.77
ERA rolling p502.77
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.31 2.00 2.77 3.54 4.23
FIP
2.38 2.80 3.26 3.73 4.14
K%
18.1% 20.8% 23.9% 26.9% 29.6%
BB%
3.8% 4.9% 6.2% 7.5% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.5%
91 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.1%
90 +51 vs proj
Fastball velo98.4
97
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
80
K%24.8%
66
Whiff%24.3%
62 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.266
87 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suarez, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2672026-05-19: 0.2672026-05-21: 0.2672026-05-23: 0.2722026-05-24: 0.2722026-05-25: 0.2722026-05-26: 0.2722026-05-28: 0.2722026-05-29: 0.2722026-05-30: 0.2722026-05-31: 0.2702026-06-01: 0.266 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suarez, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.8%Changeup: 30.8%Cutter: 13.1%Sinker: 7.2% MIX FF 49%CH 31%FC 13%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suarez, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 0.9FFCH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.2CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.5FCSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.1SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.0% 181 111 limited sample
CH 31.0% 110 109 limited sample
FC 13.8% 49 101 limited sample
SI 4.2% 15 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Changeup 24%, Sinker 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.66
K% Δ+0.010
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.3----
Batters Faced160----
K%23.7%17.2% to 33.3%+/- 8.0%
BB%7.3%4.2% to 11.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.4%
HR/90.990.45 to 1.93+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3100.251 to 0.353+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.3% to 13.8%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.431.83 to 6.08+/- 2.13
FIP3.402.74 to 5.07+/- 1.16
WHIP1.1550.831 to 1.531+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

426 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%23.1%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

480 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%22.1%
BB%4.8%
Barrel9.7%