Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Waldron, Matt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
16.1% to 26.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.30
ERA current pace7.52
ERA rolling p505.52
Observed weight38%
ERA
4.00 4.72 5.52 6.31 7.03
FIP
3.32 3.76 4.25 4.74 5.18
K%
17.4% 19.1% 21.0% 23.0% 24.7%
BB%
5.4% 6.3% 7.3% 8.4% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.63
8
ERA7.52
2
BB%7.5%
67
K%21.2%
41
xwOBA allowed0.306
58 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
63 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
15
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
49
Whiff%16.1%
5 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Cutter Stuff+102
54
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+100
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Waldron, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-07: 0.3062026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.3062026-07-18: 0.306 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Waldron, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckleball: 30.8%4-Seam Fastball: 19.4%Sinker: 18.3%Cutter: 17.5%Sweeper: 14.0% KN31% · 81 mphprimary pitch KN 31%FF 19%SI 18%FC 18%ST 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Knuckleball: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 80.7 mphKN81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphSinker: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mphCutter: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.8% 78 104 limited sample
FC 27.0% 76 102 limited sample
SI 23.8% 67 108 limited sample
SL 21.4% 60 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckleball 74%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%, Sinker 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.20
K% Δ+0.001
Sample31.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced288----
K%21.1%16.1% to 26.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 10.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.2%16.0% to 26.7%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.670.73 to 2.43+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3250.270 to 0.366+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.342.55 to 6.71+/- 2.08
FIP4.783.23 to 5.79+/- 1.28
WHIP1.3201.020 to 1.594+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%17.9%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

402 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.4%
BB%5.8%
Barrel7.1%