Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Waldron, Matt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
16.1% to 26.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace6.54
ERA rolling p505.40
Observed weight48%
ERA
3.90 4.61 5.40 6.19 6.90
FIP
3.37 3.80 4.28 4.75 5.19
K%
16.2% 17.8% 19.4% 21.1% 22.6%
BB%
5.1% 5.9% 6.8% 7.7% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
10
ERA6.54
6
BB%6.4%
85 +22 vs proj
K%17.8%
18 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
74 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
15
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
62
Whiff%15.8%
4 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Cutter Stuff+101
38
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+101
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Waldron, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-08-25: 0.3002026-08-26: 0.3002026-08-27: 0.2972026-08-28: 0.2972026-08-29: 0.2972026-08-30: 0.2972026-08-31: 0.2972026-09-01: 0.2952026-09-02: 0.2952026-09-03: 0.2922026-09-04: 0.2922026-09-05: 0.292 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Waldron, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckleball: 31.1%Cutter: 19.8%4-Seam Fastball: 17.8%Sinker: 17.0%Sweeper: 14.2% KN31% · 81 mphprimary pitch KN 31%FC 20%FF 18%SI 17%ST 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Knuckleball: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.6 mphKN81 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSinker: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.7 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.0% 105 101 limited sample
FB 25.4% 89 102 limited sample
SI 23.1% 81 107 limited sample
SL 21.4% 75 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckleball 74%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%, Sinker 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.06
K% Δ-0.034
Sample47.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced287----
K%21.1%16.1% to 26.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 10.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.2%16.0% to 26.7%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.700.74 to 2.46+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3300.274 to 0.372+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.412.59 to 6.81+/- 2.11
FIP4.783.23 to 5.79+/- 1.28
WHIP1.3431.038 to 1.621+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%17.9%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

402 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.4%
BB%5.8%
Barrel7.1%