Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Waldron, Matt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
16.1% to 26.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.30
ERA current pace8.49
ERA rolling p505.80
Observed weight36%
ERA
4.27 4.99 5.80 6.60 7.33
FIP
3.39 3.83 4.33 4.83 5.27
K%
17.1% 18.9% 20.9% 22.9% 24.7%
BB%
5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.5%
69
Barrel allowed7.4%
56
Fastball velo92.0
18
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
49
K%20.9%
39
Whiff%16.2%
7 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
58 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Waldron, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3072026-05-21: 0.3072026-05-23: 0.3072026-05-24: 0.3072026-05-25: 0.3062026-05-26: 0.3062026-05-28: 0.3062026-05-29: 0.3062026-05-30: 0.3062026-05-31: 0.3062026-06-01: 0.3062026-06-02: 0.306 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Waldron, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckleball: 29.6%4-Seam Fastball: 20.0%Sinker: 18.0%Cutter: 17.8%Sweeper: 14.7% MIX KN 30%FF 20%SI 18%FC 18%ST 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waldron, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot KN: HB 0.0, IVB 3.7KNFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.5FFSI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.9SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2FCST: HB 0.2, IVB 3.0ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.8% 78 104 limited sample
FC 27.0% 76 102 limited sample
SI 23.8% 67 108 limited sample
SL 21.4% 60 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Knuckleball 74%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%, Sinker 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+4.17
K% Δ-0.002
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.6----
Batters Faced284----
K%21.1%16.1% to 26.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 10.2%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%20.2%16.0% to 26.7%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.670.73 to 2.43+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3250.270 to 0.366+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.322.55 to 6.71+/- 2.08
FIP4.783.23 to 5.79+/- 1.28
WHIP1.3201.020 to 1.594+/- 0.287
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

422 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%17.9%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

402 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.4%
BB%5.8%
Barrel7.1%