Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Thornton, Trent

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.4% to 30.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-20
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.48
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.74 2.46 3.26 4.06 4.78
FIP
3.23 3.73 4.29 4.84 5.34
K%
14.0% 16.3% 18.8% 21.3% 23.6%
BB%
4.9% 6.2% 7.5% 8.9% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
89
ERA2.48
88
BB%8.8%
49 -30 vs proj
K%11.4%
1 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
24 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
47
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed44.4%
14
Whiff%20.2%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-20
Curveball Stuff+105
94
Cutter Stuff+106
86
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thornton, Trent · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.342 2026-07-09: 0.3452026-07-10: 0.3482026-07-11: 0.3482026-07-12: 0.3442026-07-13: 0.3432026-07-14: 0.3432026-07-15: 0.3432026-07-16: 0.3432026-07-17: 0.3432026-07-18: 0.3432026-07-19: 0.3432026-07-20: 0.342 2026-07-09 2026-07-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thornton, Trent · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thornton, Trent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.0%Cutter: 24.8%Sweeper: 16.7%Curveball: 15.8%Sinker: 9.7% FF33% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 25%ST 17%CU 16%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thornton, Trent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphCutter: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.8 mphFC91 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphSinker: 10% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.7% 78 101 limited sample
FC 26.0% 64 106 limited sample
SL 18.3% 45 97 limited sample
CB 14.2% 35 105 limited sample
SI 9.8% 24 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Cutter 22%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.61
K% Δ-0.098
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.6----
Batters Faced159----
K%21.2%16.4% to 30.0%+/- 6.8%
BB%6.8%3.8% to 10.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%21.2%17.5% to 27.7%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.370.49 to 2.16+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3140.249 to 0.372+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.7% to 10.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.092.37 to 6.43+/- 2.03
FIP3.882.76 to 5.58+/- 1.41
WHIP1.2261.014 to 1.601+/- 0.294
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

821 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%20.6%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

1000 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%20.2%
BB%5.1%
Barrel6.4%