Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Martin, Davis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.9% K%
Range
14.9% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.41
ERA rolling p503.64
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.57 3.08 3.64 4.20 4.70
FIP
2.80 3.17 3.57 3.97 4.34
K%
18.7% 19.8% 21.0% 22.3% 23.4%
BB%
6.5% 7.1% 7.9% 8.6% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
54
ERA3.41
67
BB%8.0%
61
K%21.7%
45 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
41 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
65 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
13
Whiff%23.6%
55 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Curveball Stuff+103
73
Cutter Stuff+105
82
Sinker Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+98
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martin, Davis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.323 2026-07-07: 0.3142026-07-08: 0.3142026-07-09: 0.3142026-07-10: 0.3232026-07-11: 0.3232026-07-12: 0.3232026-07-13: 0.3232026-07-14: 0.3232026-07-15: 0.3232026-07-16: 0.3232026-07-17: 0.3232026-07-18: 0.323 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martin, Davis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.2%Sinker: 17.9%Slider: 14.4%Changeup: 14.3%Cutter: 13.7%Curveball: 13.0% FF26% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 26%SI 18%SL 14%CH 14%FC 14%CU 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 1″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSinker: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 88.2 mphST88 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 39.3 mphUN39 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.5% 229 102 qualified
CH 17.1% 153 106 limited sample
SL 16.1% 144 98 limited sample
SI 15.3% 137 107 limited sample
FC 14.3% 128 105 limited sample
CB 11.8% 106 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 24%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.32
K% Δ+0.039
Sample103.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.6----
Batters Faced304----
K%17.9%14.9% to 24.1%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.0%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.8% to 25.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.88 to 2.07+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.279 to 0.365+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.732.96 to 5.85+/- 1.45
FIP4.613.36 to 5.44+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3921.065 to 1.585+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

581 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%15.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

563 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.8%