Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Martin, Davis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.9% K%
Range
14.9% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace2.04
ERA rolling p502.96
Observed weight54%
ERA
1.94 2.42 2.96 3.50 3.99
FIP
2.58 2.93 3.32 3.71 4.06
K%
20.4% 21.8% 23.2% 24.7% 26.0%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.9% 7.7% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
83 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
61 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed45.4%
14
K%26.1%
75 +57 vs proj
Whiff%26.5%
73 +44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
69 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martin, Davis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3042026-05-19: 0.3042026-05-21: 0.3042026-05-23: 0.2992026-05-24: 0.2992026-05-25: 0.2992026-05-26: 0.2992026-05-28: 0.2992026-05-29: 0.3002026-05-30: 0.2922026-05-31: 0.2922026-06-01: 0.292 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martin, Davis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.7%Changeup: 16.7%Sinker: 16.7%Slider: 14.7%Cutter: 14.2%Curveball: 11.5% MIX FF 26%CH 17%SI 17%SL 15%FC 14%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.7CHSI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.9SISL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.8SLFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2FCCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.0CUST: HB -0.5, IVB 2.7STUN: HB -0.6, IVB 13.4UN horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.5% 229 102 qualified
CH 17.1% 153 106 limited sample
SL 16.1% 144 98 limited sample
SI 15.3% 137 107 limited sample
FC 14.3% 128 105 limited sample
CB 11.8% 106 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 24%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.69
K% Δ+0.083
Sample71.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.7----
Batters Faced300----
K%17.9%14.9% to 24.1%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.0%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.8% to 25.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.88 to 2.07+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.279 to 0.365+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.732.96 to 5.85+/- 1.45
FIP4.613.36 to 5.44+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3911.065 to 1.585+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

581 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%15.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

563 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.8%