Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Lambert, Peter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.0% K%
Range
16.0% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
63
ERA3.82
58
BB%9.0%
49
K%22.7%
56
xwOBA allowed0.297
71
Barrel allowed7.2%
53
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%22.1%
46
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Changeup Stuff+94
13
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+106
82
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lambert, Peter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.297 2026-10-09: 0.2972026-10-10: 0.2972026-10-11: 0.2972026-10-12: 0.2972026-10-13: 0.2972026-10-14: 0.2972026-10-15: 0.2972026-10-16: 0.2972026-10-17: 0.2972026-10-18: 0.2972026-10-19: 0.2972026-10-20: 0.297 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lambert, Peter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lambert, Peter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Changeup: 23.6%Slider: 11.5%Sinker: 10.2%Cutter: 9.9%Sweeper: 7.6% FF31% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 31%CH 24%SL 12%SI 10%FC 10%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lambert, Peter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphSinker: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mphSlurve: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 80.3 mphSV80 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.5% 491 105 qualified
SL 24.2% 378 106 qualified
CH 23.4% 365 94 qualified
FC 10.8% 169 101 limited sample
SI 10.1% 157 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample160.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.5----
Batters Faced322----
K%20.0%16.0% to 25.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.8%5.3% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%21.4%18.2% to 26.4%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.75 to 2.06+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3010.261 to 0.337+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.2% to 11.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.373.06 to 6.04+/- 1.49
FIP4.203.15 to 7.24+/- 2.05
WHIP1.3171.115 to 1.627+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

521 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%16.6%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

622 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%17.9%
BB%6.6%
Barrel7.9%