Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Kolek, Stephen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.1% K%
Range
14.0% to 23.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight48%
ERA
3.17 3.70 4.28 4.86 5.38
FIP
3.63 3.94 4.29 4.64 4.96
K%
13.5% 14.8% 16.3% 17.7% 19.0%
BB%
4.5% 5.2% 5.9% 6.7% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
61
ERA4.50
37
BB%5.3%
94 +15 vs proj
K%15.1%
7
xwOBA allowed0.303
62 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
63
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
61
Whiff%18.1%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+104
60
Cutter Stuff+105
77
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+107
87
Slider Stuff+98
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kolek, Stephen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-06: 0.3032026-07-07: 0.3032026-07-08: 0.3032026-07-09: 0.3032026-07-10: 0.3032026-07-11: 0.3032026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.3032026-07-17: 0.303 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kolek, Stephen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kolek, Stephen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.4%Sinker: 21.7%Slider: 16.2%Cutter: 12.2%Changeup: 12.1%Sweeper: 9.3% FF28% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 28%SI 22%SL 16%FC 12%CH 12%ST 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kolek, Stephen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 105 105 limited sample
SI 22.1% 81 107 limited sample
SL 19.6% 72 98 limited sample
CH 15.8% 58 104 limited sample
FC 13.9% 51 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Sinker 25%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.06
K% Δ-0.020
Sample53.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.7----
Batters Faced589----
K%17.1%14.0% to 23.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%6.7%5.0% to 9.1%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%16.7%14.4% to 21.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.180.41 to 1.76+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3470.287 to 0.358+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.0%4.0% to 9.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.442.84 to 5.96+/- 1.56
FIP4.172.93 to 4.81+/- 0.94
WHIP1.3211.109 to 1.590+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

367 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%15.1%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

352 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%15.5%
BB%4.9%
Barrel4.9%