Lynch IV, Daniel
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.81 |
| ERA current pace | 1.59 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.13 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 28.8% | 101 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 24.5% | 86 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 23.1% | 81 | 107 | limited sample |
| FB | 16.8% | 59 | 97 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.8% | 24 | 101 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -3.00 |
| K% Δ | +0.112 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 287 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.6% | 14.3% to 24.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 5.8% to 11.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 24.3% | 20.0% to 28.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.55 | 0.97 to 2.22 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.322 | 0.286 to 0.361 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 6.6% to 12.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.59 | 2.28 to 5.40 | +/- 1.56 |
| FIP | 4.75 | 3.54 to 6.00 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.387 | 1.104 to 1.681 | +/- 0.288 |
361 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.276 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
1371 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.310 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 9.4% |