Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lynch IV, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace1.59
ERA rolling p503.13
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.94 2.50 3.13 3.75 4.31
FIP
2.84 3.28 3.77 4.26 4.70
K%
19.5% 21.3% 23.4% 25.5% 27.4%
BB%
6.1% 7.2% 8.5% 9.7% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
40 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
69 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
53
Hard-hit allowed32.3%
85
K%30.8%
93 +64 vs proj
Whiff%32.5%
94 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.267
87 +44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lynch IV, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2522026-05-21: 0.2522026-05-23: 0.2592026-05-24: 0.2592026-05-25: 0.2622026-05-26: 0.2572026-05-28: 0.2572026-05-29: 0.2572026-05-30: 0.2572026-05-31: 0.2572026-06-01: 0.2672026-06-02: 0.267 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lynch IV, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.1%Slider: 24.0%Changeup: 23.5%4-Seam Fastball: 18.5%Knuckle Curve: 7.0% MIX SI 27%SL 24%CH 24%FF 18%KC 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.7SISL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8SLCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.8CHFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.2FFKC: HB 0.2, IVB 3.6KC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.8% 101 102 limited sample
SL 24.5% 86 103 limited sample
CH 23.1% 81 107 limited sample
FB 16.8% 59 97 limited sample
CB 6.8% 24 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.276 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Changeup 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-3.00
K% Δ+0.112
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced287----
K%19.6%14.3% to 24.6%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.3%5.8% to 11.6%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.3%20.0% to 28.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.550.97 to 2.22+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3220.286 to 0.361+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.6% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.592.28 to 5.40+/- 1.56
FIP4.753.54 to 6.00+/- 1.23
WHIP1.3871.104 to 1.681+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%18.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1371 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%16.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.4%