Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Sandoval, Patrick

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
15.6% to 24.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace4.54
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight46%
ERA
3.13 3.65 4.23 4.81 5.33
FIP
3.08 3.53 4.03 4.54 4.99
K%
18.7% 20.2% 21.8% 23.4% 24.8%
BB%
7.5% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.75
5
ERA4.54
36
BB%10.6%
31 -15 vs proj
K%23.2%
58 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.344
20
Barrel allowed7.4%
53
Fastball velo93.9
39
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
83
Whiff%21.8%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Curveball Stuff+106
93
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Sinker Stuff+92
7
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sandoval, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.344 2026-08-20: 0.3342026-08-21: 0.3342026-08-22: 0.3342026-08-23: 0.3342026-08-24: 0.3342026-08-25: 0.3392026-08-26: 0.3392026-08-27: 0.3392026-08-28: 0.3392026-08-29: 0.3392026-08-30: 0.3442026-08-31: 0.344 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sandoval, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 24.7%Changeup: 24.5%Sinker: 21.1%4-Seam Fastball: 20.7%Sweeper: 4.6%Curveball: 4.4% SL25% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 25%CH 24%SI 21%FF 21%ST 5%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Slider: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.7 mphCH84 mphSinker: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.0 mphST81 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.6 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 27.3% 97 98 limited sample
SL 26.2% 93 105 limited sample
SI 23.1% 82 92 limited sample
FB 17.5% 62 102 limited sample
CB 5.9% 21 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ+0.023
Sample44.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.5----
Batters Faced652----
K%20.9%15.6% to 24.7%+/- 4.6%
BB%9.2%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.4%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.260.54 to 1.71+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3300.273 to 0.351+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.912.86 to 5.98+/- 1.56
FIP4.092.98 to 5.67+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3711.130 to 1.724+/- 0.297
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

552 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%18.9%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

1884 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%17.1%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.3%