Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Hicks, Jordan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace5.60
ERA rolling p504.49
Observed weight30%
ERA
3.11 3.76 4.49 5.22 5.87
FIP
2.84 3.37 3.96 4.56 5.09
K%
16.6% 18.7% 21.0% 23.3% 25.4%
BB%
9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 12.7% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%17.8%
1 -49 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.7%
99 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo98.4
97
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
63
K%18.8%
23 -17 vs proj
Whiff%21.0%
33
xwOBA allowed0.330
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hicks, Jordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3312026-05-24: 0.3302026-05-25: 0.3302026-05-26: 0.3302026-05-28: 0.3302026-05-29: 0.3302026-05-30: 0.3302026-05-31: 0.3302026-06-01: 0.330 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hicks, Jordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hicks, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 56.6%Sweeper: 36.0%4-Seam Fastball: 4.2%Split-Finger: 3.2% MIX SI 57%ST 36%FF 4%FS 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hicks, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.8SIST: HB -0.2, IVB 2.9STFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.5FFFS: HB -0.2, IVB 3.2FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 60.4% 186 98 limited sample
SL 35.7% 110 95 limited sample
FB 3.9% 12 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.315 vs 0.274 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 54%, Sweeper 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.06
K% Δ-0.023
Sample20.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.7----
Batters Faced309----
K%21.1%16.2% to 28.1%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.7%6.5% to 11.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.6%19.5% to 29.7%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.090.57 to 1.82+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3210.261 to 0.351+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.5% to 9.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.542.79 to 6.41+/- 1.81
FIP4.012.69 to 5.63+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2811.055 to 1.617+/- 0.281
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

864 career BF

xwOBA0.315
K%17.6%
BB%10.7%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1114 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%20.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel6.2%