Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Hicks, Jordan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal4 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.63 3.26 3.97 4.67 5.30
FIP
2.45 2.96 3.53 4.11 4.62
K%
19.2% 21.2% 23.5% 25.7% 27.7%
BB%
8.7% 9.7% 10.9% 12.0% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.57
12
ERA3.86
53
BB%14.7%
5 -44 vs proj
K%26.4%
76 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.283
79 +37 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.4%
100 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo98.8
98
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
83
Whiff%25.1%
67 +20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+97
16
Slider Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hicks, Jordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.2912026-07-12: 0.2912026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2832026-07-15: 0.2832026-07-16: 0.2832026-07-17: 0.283 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hicks, Jordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hicks, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 51.7%Sweeper: 36.4%4-Seam Fastball: 8.9%Split-Finger: 3.0% SI52% · 99 mphprimary pitch SI 52%ST 36%FF 9%FS 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hicks, Jordan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 52% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 98.7 mphSI99 mphSweeper: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphST87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 99.2 mphFF99 mphSplit-Finger: 3% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.7 mphFS89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 57.7% 199 97 limited sample
SL 36.8% 127 95 limited sample
FB 5.5% 19 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.315 vs 0.274 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 54%, Sweeper 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.68
K% Δ+0.052
Sample28.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.3----
Batters Faced307----
K%21.1%16.2% to 28.1%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.7%6.5% to 11.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%22.6%19.5% to 29.7%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.090.57 to 1.82+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3210.261 to 0.351+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.5% to 9.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.542.79 to 6.41+/- 1.81
FIP4.012.69 to 5.63+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2811.055 to 1.617+/- 0.281
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

864 career BF

xwOBA0.315
K%17.6%
BB%10.7%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1114 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%20.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel6.2%