Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Lovelady, Richard

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
14.0% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal4 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.81
4
ERA3.86
56
BB%14.0%
8
K%18.7%
26
xwOBA allowed0.363
8
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo91.3
8
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
72
Whiff%20.5%
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Slider Stuff+106
84
Fastball Stuff+103
54
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+97
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lovelady, Richard · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.363 2026-08-25: 0.3612026-08-26: 0.3612026-08-27: 0.3612026-08-28: 0.3612026-08-29: 0.3612026-08-30: 0.3612026-08-31: 0.3612026-09-01: 0.3612026-09-02: 0.3632026-09-03: 0.3632026-09-04: 0.3632026-09-05: 0.363 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lovelady, Richard · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 42.8%Sinker: 29.7%4-Seam Fastball: 21.6%Slider: 5.9% ST43% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 43%SI 30%FF 22%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lovelady, Richard · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 43% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphSlider: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 51.3% 219 106 qualified
SI 27.9% 119 97 limited sample
FB 20.8% 89 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.257 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 33%, 4-Seam Fastball 14%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample31.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.3----
Batters Faced145----
K%21.5%14.0% to 28.5%+/- 7.2%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%21.7%16.9% to 29.2%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.430.34 to 2.40+/- 1.03
xwOBA Against0.3120.238 to 0.354+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.961.86 to 7.27+/- 2.71
FIP4.202.67 to 6.79+/- 2.06
WHIP1.2841.011 to 1.687+/- 0.338
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

234 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%17.8%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

316 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%16.9%
BB%7.2%
Barrel10.0%