Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Fairbanks, Pete

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
17.9% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal4 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace6.83
ERA rolling p504.62
Observed weight37%
ERA
3.28 3.91 4.62 5.33 5.97
FIP
3.01 3.48 4.01 4.54 5.01
K%
20.9% 23.3% 25.9% 28.6% 30.9%
BB%
6.5% 7.7% 9.1% 10.5% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
38
ERA6.83
5
BB%9.9%
35 -17 vs proj
K%29.6%
92 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
32 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.2%
6 -59 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
89
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
26
Whiff%27.1%
80 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Cutter Stuff+97
12
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+99
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fairbanks, Pete · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.332 2026-07-08: 0.3262026-07-09: 0.3222026-07-10: 0.3202026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3202026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3332026-07-15: 0.3332026-07-16: 0.3332026-07-17: 0.3332026-07-18: 0.3322026-07-19: 0.332 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fairbanks, Pete · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fairbanks, Pete · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.1%Cutter: 24.6%Slider: 21.9%Changeup: 2.4% FF51% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 51%FC 25%SL 22%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fairbanks, Pete · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphCutter: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.5 mphFC89 mphSlider: 22% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.0 mphCH94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.7% 147 112 limited sample
FC 29.7% 88 97 limited sample
SL 18.2% 54 99 limited sample
CH 2.4% 7 81 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 40%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.51
K% Δ+0.043
Sample31.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.0----
Batters Faced157----
K%25.3%17.9% to 32.7%+/- 7.4%
BB%8.6%5.3% to 12.6%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%24.0%18.8% to 30.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.050.49 to 1.85+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3050.246 to 0.348+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed6.8%3.4% to 9.7%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.322.18 to 5.86+/- 1.84
FIP3.482.41 to 5.15+/- 1.37
WHIP1.1880.952 to 1.503+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%23.9%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

677 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.3%