Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 38%, Cutter 36%, Sweeper 14%.
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026
Maton, Phil
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.83 |
| ERA current pace | 7.41 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.89 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
ERA
3.47
4.14
4.89
5.63
6.30
FIP
3.65
3.87
4.12
4.37
4.59
K%
18.4%
21.0%
23.8%
26.6%
29.2%
BB%
7.5%
8.9%
10.4%
11.9%
13.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.9%
16
-22 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.9%
5
-53 vs proj
Fastball velo89.3
3
Hard-hit allowed45.2%
16
K%23.8%
57
Whiff%21.3%
35
-33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
19
-27 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
63
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
44%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 43.4% | 150 | 101 | limited sample |
| CB | 28.3% | 98 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 18.5% | 64 | 108 | limited sample |
| SI | 9.8% | 34 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +4.02 |
| K% Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 21.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 172 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.8% | 17.7% to 32.2% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.4% to 13.7% | +/- 3.7% |
| Whiff% | 25.6% | 21.7% to 33.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.09 | 0.41 to 1.90 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.317 | 0.238 to 0.356 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.2% | 3.6% to 10.7% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.39 | 2.08 to 5.79 | +/- 1.85 |
| FIP | 3.82 | 2.64 to 3.87 | +/- 0.62 |
| WHIP | 1.200 | 1.014 to 1.635 | +/- 0.310 |
vs LHH
1003 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.297 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 11.2% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHH
1215 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 24.6% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |