Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Javier, Cristian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace6.45
ERA rolling p505.28
Observed weight50%
ERA
4.27 4.75 5.28 5.81 6.29
FIP
3.71 4.12 4.57 5.03 5.44
K%
18.1% 19.5% 21.1% 22.6% 24.1%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
18
ERA6.45
7
BB%9.2%
47
K%20.5%
38
xwOBA allowed0.346
18 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
71
Whiff%26.9%
80 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-04
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Curveball Stuff+97
3
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Sinker Stuff+93
9
Slider Stuff+103
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Javier, Cristian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.346 2026-08-24: 0.3672026-08-25: 0.3592026-08-26: 0.3592026-08-27: 0.3592026-08-28: 0.3592026-08-29: 0.3592026-08-30: 0.3462026-08-31: 0.3462026-09-01: 0.3462026-09-02: 0.3462026-09-03: 0.3462026-09-04: 0.346 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Javier, Cristian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.0%Sweeper: 25.8%Changeup: 16.1%Cutter: 4.4%Sinker: 2.2%Knuckle Curve: 1.8% FF49% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 49%ST 26%CH 16%FC 4%SI 2%KC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 80.7 mphST81 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCutter: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mphSinker: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphKnuckle Curve: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.4 mphKC77 mphSlider: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.8% 205 100 qualified
SL 27.7% 114 103 limited sample
CH 16.0% 66 105 limited sample
CB 2.9% 12 97 limited sample
SI 2.9% 12 93 limited sample
FC 0.7% 3 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 20%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.31
K% Δ-0.012
Sample53.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.7----
Batters Faced307----
K%21.7%17.2% to 27.0%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.7%7.7% to 12.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.9%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.370.84 to 2.00+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3250.284 to 0.352+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.143.34 to 6.20+/- 1.43
FIP4.373.33 to 5.78+/- 1.22
WHIP1.2641.073 to 1.620+/- 0.274
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1287 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.2%
BB%11.1%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1197 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.6%