Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Kremer, Dean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
18.0% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.55
ERA current pace4.09
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight30%
ERA
3.38 3.87 4.41 4.95 5.43
FIP
4.18 4.49 4.83 5.17 5.48
K%
20.6% 22.2% 24.0% 25.8% 27.4%
BB%
5.4% 6.3% 7.2% 8.2% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
86
ERA4.09
48
BB%6.7%
80
K%30.5%
94 +56 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
37
Barrel allowed15.4%
1 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
24
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
64
Whiff%29.8%
91 +59 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
73
Cutter Stuff+112
99
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kremer, Dean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.327 2026-07-07: 0.3082026-07-08: 0.3082026-07-09: 0.3082026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3272026-07-12: 0.3272026-07-13: 0.3272026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.3272026-07-17: 0.3272026-07-18: 0.327 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kremer, Dean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kremer, Dean · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 33.8%4-Seam Fastball: 24.2%Sinker: 16.1%Curveball: 13.8%Cutter: 10.3%Slider: 1.9% FS34% · 82 mphprimary pitch FS 34%FF 24%SI 16%CU 14%FC 10%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kremer, Dean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 34% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 82.5 mphFS82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSinker: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.2 mphCU77 mphCutter: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphFC87 mphSlider: 2% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.3 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.1% 54 103 limited sample
SI 27.9% 43 100 limited sample
CB 23.4% 36 103 limited sample
FC 9.1% 14 112 limited sample
SL 4.5% 7 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.318 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Split-Finger 21%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.05
K% Δ+0.096
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.3----
Batters Faced327----
K%20.9%18.0% to 26.3%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.5%5.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.8%18.7% to 25.5%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.450.92 to 2.03+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3210.281 to 0.352+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.7% to 12.5%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.143.32 to 6.01+/- 1.35
FIP4.303.38 to 5.09+/- 0.86
WHIP1.3021.102 to 1.548+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1426 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%19.1%
BB%8.1%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1618 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%20.4%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.5%