Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Medina, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal6 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.20
ERA current pace3.59
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.74 3.30 3.92 4.54 5.10
FIP
3.47 3.77 4.11 4.45 4.75
K%
20.7% 22.3% 24.1% 25.9% 27.6%
BB%
8.3% 9.3% 10.5% 11.7% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA3.59
59
BB%13.2%
10 -36 vs proj
K%26.5%
76 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
50
Barrel allowed7.8%
48
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed37.9%
57
Whiff%30.1%
91 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+96
16
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Fastball Stuff+103
50
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Medina, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.314 2026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3232026-07-08: 0.3232026-07-09: 0.3232026-07-10: 0.3232026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3142026-07-16: 0.3142026-07-17: 0.314 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Medina, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.2%4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Slider: 15.4%Changeup: 12.6%Curveball: 11.3% SI31% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 31%FF 30%SL 15%CH 13%CU 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSlider: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 80.5 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.6% 162 103 limited sample
SI 31.0% 154 102 limited sample
SL 15.1% 75 96 limited sample
CH 13.5% 67 96 limited sample
CB 7.8% 39 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.67
K% Δ+0.048
Sample45.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.8----
Batters Faced311----
K%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.9%6.2% to 12.5%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%22.5%18.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.490.77 to 2.04+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3180.273 to 0.349+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.263.16 to 6.50+/- 1.67
FIP4.073.12 to 4.93+/- 0.91
WHIP1.3171.124 to 1.645+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

313 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%18.2%
BB%10.4%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

366 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.2%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%