Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Medina, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.20
ERA current pace3.27
ERA rolling p503.89
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.65 3.23 3.89 4.54 5.13
FIP
3.50 3.82 4.17 4.53 4.85
K%
19.1% 21.0% 23.0% 25.1% 27.0%
BB%
7.4% 8.6% 9.9% 11.2% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.2%
9 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.9%
26 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
87
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
57
K%24.8%
67 +21 vs proj
Whiff%27.8%
81 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
36
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Medina, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3382026-05-24: 0.3382026-05-25: 0.3352026-05-26: 0.3352026-05-28: 0.3552026-05-29: 0.3552026-05-30: 0.3552026-05-31: 0.3472026-06-01: 0.331 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Medina, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.6%4-Seam Fastball: 30.7%Slider: 15.1%Changeup: 12.0%Curveball: 7.5% MIX SI 35%FF 31%SL 15%CH 12%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.5SIFF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.1FFSL: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8SLCH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.6CHCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.7CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.7% 131 103 limited sample
FB 31.7% 127 101 limited sample
SL 15.0% 60 93 limited sample
CH 13.0% 52 96 limited sample
CB 7.7% 31 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.99
K% Δ+0.031
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.2----
Batters Faced313----
K%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.9%6.2% to 12.5%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%22.5%18.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.490.77 to 2.04+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3180.273 to 0.349+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.253.16 to 6.50+/- 1.67
FIP4.073.12 to 4.93+/- 0.91
WHIP1.3171.124 to 1.645+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

313 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%18.2%
BB%10.4%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

366 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.2%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%