Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Medina, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.3% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace3.70
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.74 3.30 3.92 4.54 5.10
FIP
3.42 3.75 4.11 4.47 4.79
K%
22.1% 23.5% 25.1% 26.7% 28.2%
BB%
8.7% 9.6% 10.7% 11.7% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
22
ERA3.70
58
BB%12.8%
14 -37 vs proj
K%27.6%
85 +38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
54
Barrel allowed8.4%
34
Fastball velo97.5
91
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
44
Whiff%28.8%
89 +41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Changeup Stuff+98
20
Curveball Stuff+101
25
Sinker Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Medina, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.310 2026-08-22: 0.3202026-08-23: 0.3202026-08-24: 0.3202026-08-25: 0.3212026-08-26: 0.3212026-08-27: 0.3202026-08-28: 0.3202026-08-29: 0.3202026-08-30: 0.3132026-08-31: 0.3132026-09-01: 0.3132026-09-02: 0.310 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Medina, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.3%Sinker: 26.8%Slider: 17.1%Changeup: 13.6%Curveball: 12.2% FF30% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 30%SI 27%SL 17%CH 14%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Medina, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSinker: 27% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphSlider: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.1% 200 103 qualified
SI 28.0% 175 102 limited sample
SL 17.1% 107 98 limited sample
CH 13.8% 86 98 limited sample
CB 9.0% 56 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.55
K% Δ+0.057
Sample65.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.0----
Batters Faced312----
K%21.7%17.3% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.9%6.2% to 12.5%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%22.5%18.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.490.77 to 2.04+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3180.273 to 0.349+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.2%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.263.16 to 6.50+/- 1.67
FIP4.073.12 to 4.93+/- 0.91
WHIP1.3171.124 to 1.645+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

313 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%18.2%
BB%10.4%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

366 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%20.2%
BB%8.1%
Barrel7.6%