Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Alvarado, Elvis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal4 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.31
ERA current pace4.94
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight32%
ERA
2.10 2.92 3.83 4.74 5.56
FIP
2.93 3.46 4.06 4.65 5.19
K%
22.8% 25.3% 28.1% 30.9% 33.5%
BB%
7.0% 8.4% 10.0% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
66
ERA4.94
26
BB%9.6%
36
K%30.7%
95 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
42
Barrel allowed17.6%
0 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
98
Hard-hit allowed48.5%
4
Whiff%28.0%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, Elvis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-06: 0.3252026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3252026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3212026-07-13: 0.3212026-07-14: 0.3212026-07-15: 0.3212026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.321 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, Elvis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.0%Slider: 26.1%Sinker: 19.2%Split-Finger: 3.7% FF51% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 51%SL 26%SI 19%FS 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.9 mphFF99 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphSinker: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.8 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.4 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 58.2% 124 102 limited sample
SL 21.1% 45 98 limited sample
SI 20.7% 44 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 32%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.01
K% Δ+0.049
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced145----
K%25.8%19.2% to 34.1%+/- 7.4%
BB%10.3%7.2% to 15.1%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%27.2%23.0% to 35.5%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.140.51 to 2.14+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3220.256 to 0.337+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.931.43 to 6.04+/- 2.31
FIP4.002.85 to 5.86+/- 1.50
WHIP1.3591.030 to 1.715+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

86 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%24.4%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

109 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%22.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.8%