Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Alvarado, Elvis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
19.2% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal4 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.31
ERA current pace3.90
ERA rolling p503.60
Observed weight49%
ERA
1.97 2.74 3.60 4.46 5.23
FIP
3.23 3.74 4.30 4.86 5.36
K%
23.1% 25.1% 27.3% 29.5% 31.5%
BB%
8.2% 9.3% 10.6% 11.9% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
55
ERA3.90
55
BB%11.1%
25
K%27.8%
86
xwOBA allowed0.322
37
Barrel allowed12.8%
3 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo98.5
97
Hard-hit allowed46.8%
3
Whiff%28.0%
87
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+106
77
Slider Stuff+97
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, Elvis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.322 2026-10-04: 0.3222026-10-05: 0.3222026-10-06: 0.3222026-10-07: 0.3222026-10-08: 0.3222026-10-09: 0.3222026-10-10: 0.3222026-10-11: 0.3222026-10-12: 0.3222026-10-13: 0.3222026-10-14: 0.3222026-10-15: 0.322 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, Elvis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 58.1%Slider: 19.4%Sinker: 15.9%Split-Finger: 6.6% FF58% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 19%SI 16%FS 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.7 mphFF99 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphSinker: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.7 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.6% 332 105 qualified
SI 19.1% 98 106 limited sample
SL 16.1% 83 97 limited sample
CH 0.2% 1 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 32%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.03
K% Δ+0.019
Sample55.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.8----
Batters Faced152----
K%25.5%19.2% to 34.1%+/- 7.4%
BB%10.2%7.2% to 15.1%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%27.2%23.0% to 35.5%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.140.51 to 2.14+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3210.256 to 0.337+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.981.43 to 6.04+/- 2.31
FIP4.002.85 to 5.86+/- 1.50
WHIP1.3621.030 to 1.715+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

86 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%24.4%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

109 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%22.7%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.8%