Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 29%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 22%.
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026
Lodolo, Nick
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team CIN
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.88 |
| ERA current pace | 5.57 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.51 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
ERA
3.49
3.97
4.51
5.05
5.54
FIP
4.38
4.63
4.92
5.21
5.47
K%
19.8%
21.4%
23.1%
24.9%
26.4%
BB%
5.9%
6.7%
7.7%
8.6%
9.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
29
-57 vs proj
Barrel allowed14.6%
2
-34 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
48
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
30
K%20.1%
33
-21 vs proj
Whiff%22.3%
45
-18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.392
3
-57 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
28%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 26.1% | 120 | 100 | limited sample |
| CH | 25.7% | 118 | 105 | limited sample |
| CB | 25.3% | 116 | 98 | limited sample |
| SI | 22.9% | 105 | 112 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.43 |
| K% Δ | -0.030 |
| Sample | 31.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 73.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 316 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.2% | 20.3% to 29.6% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 4.5% to 8.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 24.8% | 22.2% to 29.4% | +/- 3.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.48 | 1.08 to 2.03 | +/- 0.48 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.271 to 0.325 | +/- 0.027 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.8% | 6.7% to 11.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 4.14 | 2.78 to 5.60 | +/- 1.41 |
| FIP | 3.98 | 3.09 to 4.59 | +/- 0.75 |
| WHIP | 1.208 | 1.009 to 1.420 | +/- 0.206 |
vs LHH
360 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |
vs RHH
1525 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 9.1% |