Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Lodolo, Nick

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.2% K%
Range
20.4% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.60
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight56%
ERA
3.28 3.75 4.28 4.81 5.28
FIP
3.98 4.24 4.52 4.80 5.05
K%
18.9% 20.1% 21.5% 22.9% 24.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
24
ERA4.60
34
BB%9.6%
37 -51 vs proj
K%18.8%
25 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.373
6 -54 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
37
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
40
Whiff%20.0%
25 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+111
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lodolo, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.373 2026-07-07: 0.3742026-07-08: 0.3742026-07-09: 0.3742026-07-10: 0.3742026-07-11: 0.3742026-07-12: 0.3742026-07-13: 0.3732026-07-14: 0.3732026-07-15: 0.3732026-07-16: 0.3732026-07-17: 0.3732026-07-18: 0.373 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lodolo, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.4%4-Seam Fastball: 25.5%Curveball: 24.3%Changeup: 22.8% SI27% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 27%FF 25%CU 24%CH 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.1 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.1% 120 100 limited sample
CH 25.7% 118 105 limited sample
CB 25.3% 116 99 limited sample
SI 22.9% 105 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 29%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.46
K% Δ-0.043
Sample66.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.6----
Batters Faced320----
K%23.2%20.4% to 29.5%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.0%4.5% to 8.7%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.8%22.2% to 29.4%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.481.08 to 2.03+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3040.271 to 0.325+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.7% to 11.9%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.142.78 to 5.60+/- 1.41
FIP3.983.09 to 4.59+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2081.009 to 1.420+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

360 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.8%
BB%6.0%
Barrel6.1%
vs RHH

1525 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%23.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.1%