Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Zeferjahn, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 33.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal4 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.89
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.55 3.14 3.81 4.47 5.07
FIP
2.94 3.50 4.12 4.75 5.31
K%
24.2% 26.1% 28.1% 30.2% 32.0%
BB%
10.1% 11.3% 12.7% 14.0% 15.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA3.89
52
BB%15.2%
4 -18 vs proj
K%30.3%
94 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.282
81 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
66 +31 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
53
Whiff%28.7%
87
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+107
86
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Zeferjahn, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.282 2026-07-07: 0.2852026-07-08: 0.2852026-07-09: 0.2852026-07-10: 0.2822026-07-11: 0.2782026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2782026-07-14: 0.2822026-07-15: 0.2822026-07-16: 0.2822026-07-17: 0.2822026-07-18: 0.282 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Zeferjahn, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 35.9%4-Seam Fastball: 30.6%Sinker: 17.7%Slider: 12.3%Cutter: 2.3%Curveball: 1.2% ST36% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 36%FF 31%SI 18%SL 12%FC 2%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Sweeper: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.2 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphSinker: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphSlider: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.3 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 77″ drop, 54.8 mphUN55 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.1% 285 107 qualified
FB 24.7% 130 95 limited sample
SI 21.3% 112 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sweeper 27%, Cutter 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.28
K% Δ+0.044
Sample48.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.1----
Batters Faced286----
K%25.9%21.0% to 33.7%+/- 6.4%
BB%11.3%7.7% to 15.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%25.9%22.1% to 32.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.270.75 to 2.14+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3090.252 to 0.353+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.172.47 to 6.03+/- 1.78
FIP4.012.57 to 5.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.3501.018 to 1.742+/- 0.362
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%23.9%
BB%12.2%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.7%
BB%11.0%
Barrel9.6%