Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Zeferjahn, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 33.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.13
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.82 3.44 4.13 4.81 5.43
FIP
3.20 3.78 4.42 5.07 5.65
K%
21.2% 23.3% 25.6% 27.9% 30.0%
BB%
8.9% 10.2% 11.7% 13.1% 14.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.8%
7
Barrel allowed8.0%
46
Fastball velo96.4
81
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
37
K%24.6%
64
Whiff%24.3%
61
xwOBA allowed0.306
57
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Zeferjahn, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2262026-05-19: 0.2262026-05-21: 0.2492026-05-23: 0.2672026-05-24: 0.2782026-05-25: 0.2782026-05-26: 0.2782026-05-28: 0.2782026-05-29: 0.2782026-05-30: 0.2812026-05-31: 0.3062026-06-01: 0.306 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Zeferjahn, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 32.9%4-Seam Fastball: 24.0%Sinker: 23.2%Slider: 16.1%Cutter: 3.6%Unknown: 0.2% MIX ST 33%FF 24%SI 23%SL 16%FC 4%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB 0.1, IVB 2.8STFF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.8SISL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.9SLFC: HB -0.2, IVB 2.4FCUN: HB -0.1, IVB 6.4UN horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.2% 246 107 qualified
SI 23.3% 106 99 limited sample
FB 22.5% 102 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sweeper 27%, Cutter 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.64
K% Δ-0.013
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.3----
Batters Faced282----
K%25.9%21.0% to 33.7%+/- 6.4%
BB%11.3%7.7% to 15.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%25.9%22.1% to 32.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.270.75 to 2.14+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3090.252 to 0.353+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.172.47 to 6.03+/- 1.78
FIP4.012.57 to 5.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.3501.018 to 1.742+/- 0.362
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%23.9%
BB%12.2%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.7%
BB%11.0%
Barrel9.6%