Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Zeferjahn, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 33.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal4 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.73 3.32 3.97 4.62 5.20
FIP
2.82 3.39 4.01 4.64 5.20
K%
25.1% 26.7% 28.5% 30.3% 31.9%
BB%
9.5% 10.5% 11.7% 12.8% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
63
ERA4.23
45
BB%12.6%
15
K%30.4%
94 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.278
85 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
55 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed37.0%
60
Whiff%28.4%
87
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
73
Slider Stuff+107
87
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Zeferjahn, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.278 2026-08-25: 0.2812026-08-26: 0.2812026-08-27: 0.2832026-08-28: 0.2832026-08-29: 0.2832026-08-30: 0.2802026-08-31: 0.2802026-09-01: 0.2802026-09-02: 0.2802026-09-03: 0.2802026-09-04: 0.2782026-09-05: 0.278 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Zeferjahn, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 37.5%4-Seam Fastball: 33.6%Sinker: 15.3%Slider: 9.4%Curveball: 2.3%Cutter: 1.7% ST38% · 85 mphprimary pitch ST 38%FF 34%SI 15%SL 9%CU 2%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Zeferjahn, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Sweeper: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.3 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSinker: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.5 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.3 mphCU84 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.3 mphFC91 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 77″ drop, 54.8 mphUN55 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 53.0% 396 107 qualified
FB 28.8% 215 99 qualified
SI 17.9% 134 101 limited sample
CB 0.3% 2 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sweeper 27%, Cutter 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.15
K% Δ+0.044
Sample66.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.1----
Batters Faced286----
K%25.9%21.0% to 33.7%+/- 6.4%
BB%11.3%7.7% to 15.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%25.9%22.1% to 32.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.250.74 to 2.11+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3020.246 to 0.345+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.072.41 to 5.89+/- 1.74
FIP4.012.57 to 5.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.3321.005 to 1.720+/- 0.358
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%23.9%
BB%12.2%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%24.7%
BB%11.0%
Barrel9.6%