Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Brash, Matt

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
23.2% to 38.1%
Live Δ
--
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.39
ERA current pace0.00
ERA rolling p502.64
Observed weight22%
ERA
1.16 1.86 2.64 3.43 4.13
FIP
2.32 2.89 3.52 4.16 4.73
K%
20.8% 23.7% 26.8% 29.9% 32.7%
BB%
6.1% 7.8% 9.7% 11.6% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brash, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brash, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 55.9%Sinker: 22.8%Changeup: 15.4%4-Seam Fastball: 5.9% MIX SL 56%SI 23%CH 15%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brash, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.1, IVB 3.1SLSI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.7SICH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.9CHFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.3FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 57.5% 111 108 limited sample
SI 21.2% 41 110 limited sample
CH 13.5% 26 105 limited sample
FB 7.8% 15 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 62%, Sinker 21%, Changeup 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.7----
Batters Faced166----
K%28.1%23.2% to 38.1%+/- 7.4%
BB%9.7%5.4% to 14.3%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%30.2%25.0% to 36.2%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.200.23 to 1.80+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.2840.243 to 0.352+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.7% to 11.3%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.441.60 to 5.41+/- 1.91
FIP3.241.98 to 4.94+/- 1.48
WHIP1.2251.018 to 1.664+/- 0.323
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

373 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%27.8%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

457 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%28.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel6.6%