Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 22%, Sinker 19%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Morillo, Juan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.72 |
| ERA current pace | 2.91 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.46 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
1.55
2.46
3.46
4.47
5.38
FIP
2.48
2.94
3.46
3.98
4.44
K%
21.1%
23.4%
26.0%
28.6%
31.0%
BB%
6.1%
7.8%
9.6%
11.4%
13.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
46
Barrel allowed7.5%
55
Fastball velo98.6
98
Hard-hit allowed31.3%
89
K%29.5%
90
+36 vs proj
Whiff%29.6%
88
+29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.241
96
+53 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
79
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
52%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 53.2% | 209 | 105 | qualified |
| CH | 18.6% | 73 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 15.5% | 61 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 12.7% | 50 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.02 |
| K% Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 27.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 152 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.8% | 17.8% to 31.4% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 5.6% to 15.2% | +/- 4.8% |
| Whiff% | 24.1% | 18.5% to 29.9% | +/- 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 0.81 | 0.15 to 1.71 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.321 | 0.226 to 0.348 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.4% | 3.1% to 10.6% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.93 | 1.36 to 6.45 | +/- 2.55 |
| FIP | 3.68 | 2.19 to 4.81 | +/- 1.31 |
| WHIP | 1.382 | 1.093 to 1.794 | +/- 0.350 |
vs LHH
75 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 11.8% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHH
101 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 8.3% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |