Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Doval, Camilo

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
19.4% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace4.14
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.23 3.03 3.92 4.80 5.60
FIP
2.69 3.30 3.98 4.65 5.26
K%
20.4% 22.3% 24.5% 26.7% 28.6%
BB%
9.3% 10.5% 11.9% 13.2% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
24
ERA4.14
47
BB%12.4%
16
K%22.9%
56 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
68
Barrel allowed5.8%
76 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed48.1%
3
Whiff%23.7%
57 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+100
36
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Slider Stuff+103
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Doval, Camilo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-08-25: 0.2942026-08-26: 0.2942026-08-27: 0.2922026-08-28: 0.2922026-08-29: 0.2922026-08-30: 0.2922026-08-31: 0.2962026-09-01: 0.2962026-09-02: 0.2972026-09-03: 0.2982026-09-04: 0.2982026-09-05: 0.298 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Doval, Camilo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.8%Slider: 29.6%Cutter: 26.9%Changeup: 2.8% SI41% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 41%SL 30%FC 27%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mphSlider: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.9 mphSL89 mphCutter: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 98.8 mphFC99 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 94.5 mphCH95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.6% 236 100 qualified
FC 29.4% 163 104 limited sample
SL 26.0% 144 103 limited sample
CH 2.0% 11 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 48%, Cutter 40%, Sinker 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.47
K% Δ-0.025
Sample54.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.7----
Batters Faced177----
K%25.4%19.4% to 34.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.2%7.4% to 16.3%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%28.3%24.4% to 35.9%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.140.30 to 1.73+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3080.233 to 0.369+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.6% to 11.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.671.83 to 6.60+/- 2.39
FIP3.522.24 to 5.90+/- 1.83
WHIP1.2620.946 to 1.766+/- 0.410
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

624 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%25.6%
BB%13.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

686 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.5%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.9%