Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Soriano, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace2.65
ERA rolling p503.18
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.14 2.63 3.18 3.73 4.23
FIP
2.97 3.25 3.55 3.86 4.13
K%
22.5% 23.9% 25.5% 27.2% 28.6%
BB%
8.6% 9.4% 10.3% 11.2% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.3%
21 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
31 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo97.2
90
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
67
K%26.9%
80 +23 vs proj
Whiff%30.2%
90 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3172026-05-19: 0.3172026-05-21: 0.3172026-05-23: 0.3062026-05-24: 0.3062026-05-25: 0.3052026-05-26: 0.3052026-05-28: 0.3082026-05-29: 0.3082026-05-30: 0.3082026-05-31: 0.3082026-06-01: 0.308 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.7%4-Seam Fastball: 24.4%Knuckle Curve: 24.3%Split-Finger: 18.1%Slider: 5.5% MIX SI 28%FF 24%KC 24%FS 18%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2SIFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.3FFKC: HB -0.2, IVB 3.7KCFS: HB -0.6, IVB 2.7FSSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.6SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.4% 301 104 qualified
CB 31.4% 283 105 qualified
FB 28.8% 260 103 qualified
SL 6.4% 58 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Knuckle Curve 26%, Split-Finger 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.24
K% Δ+0.033
Sample72.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.7----
Batters Faced614----
K%23.7%18.1% to 29.1%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.4%7.0% to 12.0%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.6%22.1% to 32.0%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.110.43 to 1.64+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3080.266 to 0.335+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed7.3%5.0% to 10.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.892.53 to 5.47+/- 1.47
FIP4.032.71 to 4.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2881.060 to 1.558+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

779 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.7%
BB%10.3%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

682 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%22.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.9%