Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Soriano, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.52 3.03 3.61 4.19 4.71
FIP
3.29 3.57 3.89 4.21 4.49
K%
21.9% 23.1% 24.4% 25.7% 26.9%
BB%
9.3% 10.0% 10.8% 11.6% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
50
ERA3.49
64
BB%11.7%
19 -21 vs proj
K%24.6%
65
xwOBA allowed0.322
41
Barrel allowed8.1%
44
Fastball velo96.9
86
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
65
Whiff%29.0%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.322 2026-07-06: 0.3222026-07-07: 0.3222026-07-08: 0.3222026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3202026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3202026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3222026-07-17: 0.322 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.3%Knuckle Curve: 25.2%4-Seam Fastball: 23.7%Split-Finger: 19.5%Slider: 5.3% SI26% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 26%KC 25%FF 24%FS 20%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 96.5 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.3 mphKC85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 92.3 mphFS92 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.1% 389 103 qualified
CB 32.1% 378 104 qualified
FB 28.1% 330 102 qualified
SL 6.7% 79 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Knuckle Curve 26%, Split-Finger 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.40
K% Δ+0.010
Sample111.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.3----
Batters Faced617----
K%23.7%18.1% to 29.1%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.4%7.0% to 12.0%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.6%22.1% to 32.0%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.110.43 to 1.64+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3080.266 to 0.335+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed7.3%5.0% to 10.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.892.53 to 5.47+/- 1.47
FIP4.032.71 to 4.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2881.061 to 1.559+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

779 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.7%
BB%10.3%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

682 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%22.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.9%