Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Winn, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal5 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
20
ERA5.63
15
BB%8.3%
58
K%22.6%
54
xwOBA allowed0.337
26
Barrel allowed6.4%
69
Fastball velo95.3
63
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
12
Whiff%26.9%
80
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Cutter Stuff+103
65
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+122
100
Slider Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Winn, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-08-25: 0.3272026-08-26: 0.3272026-08-27: 0.3372026-08-28: 0.3372026-08-29: 0.3372026-08-30: 0.3372026-08-31: 0.3372026-09-01: 0.3372026-09-02: 0.3372026-09-03: 0.3372026-09-04: 0.3372026-09-05: 0.337 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Winn, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Cutter: 28.7%Slider: 22.9%Split-Finger: 15.0%Sinker: 2.2%Curveball: 0.1% FF31% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 31%FC 29%SL 23%FS 15%SI 2%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphCutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSlider: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 15% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphFS87 mphSinker: 2% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 159 106 limited sample
FC 32.4% 135 103 limited sample
SL 26.9% 112 101 limited sample
SI 2.6% 11 122 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.291 vs 0.268 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 21%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample51.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.2----
Batters Faced141----
K%21.3%16.2% to 28.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 12.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.1%19.1% to 28.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.190.18 to 1.68+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3270.253 to 0.365+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed9.0%3.7% to 14.0%+/- 5.1%
ERA4.161.39 to 5.71+/- 2.16
FIP4.052.71 to 6.59+/- 1.94
WHIP1.2310.806 to 1.537+/- 0.365
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

95 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%17.6%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%19.6%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.2%