Winn, Cole
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.96 |
| ERA current pace | 5.59 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.45 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 38.1% | 110 | 104 | limited sample |
| FC | 33.2% | 96 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 24.9% | 72 | 96 | limited sample |
| SI | 3.8% | 11 | 123 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.37 |
| K% Δ | +0.037 |
| Sample | 22.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 34.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 143 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.3% | 16.2% to 28.3% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 5.4% to 12.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| Whiff% | 22.1% | 19.1% to 28.4% | +/- 4.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.19 | 0.18 to 1.68 | +/- 0.75 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.327 | 0.253 to 0.365 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.0% | 3.7% to 14.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| ERA | 4.22 | 1.39 to 5.71 | +/- 2.16 |
| FIP | 4.05 | 2.71 to 6.59 | +/- 1.94 |
| WHIP | 1.233 | 0.806 to 1.536 | +/- 0.365 |
95 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.291 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 9.7% |
153 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |