Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Erceg, Lucas

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
17.3% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.57
ERA current pace5.06
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.52 3.25 4.05 4.86 5.59
FIP
2.69 3.13 3.62 4.11 4.55
K%
17.2% 19.5% 22.0% 24.4% 26.7%
BB%
7.2% 8.5% 9.9% 11.4% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.1%
14 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
69 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
86
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
51
K%19.0%
24 -25 vs proj
Whiff%19.0%
19 -53 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

11 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Erceg, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-19: 0.3122026-05-21: 0.3122026-05-23: 0.3122026-05-24: 0.3122026-05-25: 0.3132026-05-26: 0.3112026-05-28: 0.3112026-05-29: 0.3112026-05-30: 0.3112026-05-31: 0.3112026-06-01: 0.323 2026-05-19 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Erceg, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.0%Slider: 30.9%Sinker: 22.7%Changeup: 14.4% MIX FF 32%SL 31%SI 23%CH 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.4SLSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.5SICH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.3CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.5% 124 102 limited sample
SL 30.4% 116 94 limited sample
SI 22.8% 87 104 limited sample
CH 14.4% 55 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 29%, Sinker 24%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.32
K% Δ-0.032
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced171----
K%22.2%17.3% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.2%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%26.1%20.7% to 32.2%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.000.34 to 1.71+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3150.249 to 0.361+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.741.92 to 6.02+/- 2.05
FIP3.782.48 to 4.97+/- 1.24
WHIP1.2870.986 to 1.674+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

384 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%21.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

447 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%21.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%