Erceg, Lucas
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.57 |
| ERA current pace | 5.06 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.05 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 32.5% | 124 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 30.4% | 116 | 94 | limited sample |
| SI | 22.8% | 87 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.4% | 55 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.32 |
| K% Δ | -0.032 |
| Sample | 22.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 171 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.2% | 17.3% to 30.6% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 5.0% to 12.2% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 26.1% | 20.7% to 32.2% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.00 | 0.34 to 1.71 | +/- 0.68 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.315 | 0.249 to 0.361 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 4.2% to 12.0% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 3.74 | 1.92 to 6.02 | +/- 2.05 |
| FIP | 3.78 | 2.48 to 4.97 | +/- 1.24 |
| WHIP | 1.287 | 0.986 to 1.674 | +/- 0.344 |
384 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |
447 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |