Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Erceg, Lucas

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
17.3% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.57
ERA current pace5.11
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.78 3.47 4.24 5.00 5.70
FIP
3.19 3.60 4.06 4.52 4.93
K%
16.5% 18.5% 20.6% 22.7% 24.7%
BB%
7.8% 9.0% 10.2% 11.5% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.76
4
ERA5.11
23
BB%12.0%
17 -29 vs proj
K%16.9%
13 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
42
Barrel allowed6.3%
71 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
44
Whiff%19.2%
19 -54 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+100
31
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+105
69
Slider Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Erceg, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-06: 0.3252026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3202026-07-11: 0.3182026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3182026-07-14: 0.3212026-07-15: 0.3212026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.321 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Erceg, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.5%Slider: 30.2%Sinker: 25.2%Changeup: 14.0% FF31% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 30%SI 25%CH 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.4 mphSL84 mphSinker: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.3% 140 104 limited sample
SL 29.1% 126 95 limited sample
SI 24.0% 104 105 limited sample
CH 14.5% 63 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 29%, Sinker 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.37
K% Δ-0.052
Sample38.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.0----
Batters Faced169----
K%22.2%17.3% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.2%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%26.1%20.7% to 32.2%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.000.34 to 1.71+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3150.249 to 0.361+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.741.93 to 6.02+/- 2.05
FIP3.782.48 to 4.97+/- 1.24
WHIP1.2870.986 to 1.674+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

384 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%21.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

447 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%21.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%