Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Kilian, Caleb

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.7% K%
Range
7.5% to 22.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA4.91
29
BB%10.5%
33
K%27.7%
84
xwOBA allowed0.292
73
Barrel allowed8.3%
37
Fastball velo96.7
82
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
73
Whiff%25.6%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Curveball Stuff+98
8
Mithrandir Stuff+105
81
Sinker Stuff+99
31
Slider Stuff+112
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kilian, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-08-25: 0.2922026-08-26: 0.2922026-08-27: 0.2922026-08-28: 0.2922026-08-29: 0.2922026-08-30: 0.2922026-08-31: 0.2922026-09-01: 0.2922026-09-02: 0.2922026-09-03: 0.2922026-09-04: 0.2922026-09-05: 0.292 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kilian, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kilian, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.7%Knuckle Curve: 23.4%Slider: 14.4%Sinker: 13.4% FF49% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 49%KC 23%SL 14%SI 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kilian, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 23% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 80.9 mphKC81 mphSlider: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mphSinker: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.5% 231 109 qualified
CB 24.9% 114 98 limited sample
SL 13.6% 62 112 limited sample
SI 10.9% 50 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample51.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.1----
Batters Faced282----
K%19.7%7.5% to 22.5%+/- 7.5%
BB%8.1%4.2% to 11.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%18.9%9.4% to 22.9%+/- 6.8%
HR/91.700.58 to 1.94+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3320.240 to 0.386+/- 0.073
Barrel% Allowed8.7%4.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.492.58 to 6.60+/- 2.01
FIP4.032.90 to 5.45+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3130.901 to 1.586+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.222
K%6.9%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

75 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%7.5%
BB%5.5%
Barrel7.7%