Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Williams, Gavin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
20.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.72
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.54 3.09 3.70 4.32 4.87
FIP
2.61 3.15 3.75 4.35 4.89
K%
28.4% 29.4% 30.5% 31.6% 32.6%
BB%
6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 8.4% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
82
ERA3.72
58
BB%7.3%
73 +34 vs proj
K%32.5%
97 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.3%
6 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
89
Hard-hit allowed46.7%
5
Whiff%30.1%
92 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Fastball Stuff+106
74
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+107
91
Slider Stuff+102
47
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-08-22: 0.3052026-08-23: 0.3052026-08-24: 0.3052026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3092026-08-28: 0.3092026-08-29: 0.3092026-08-30: 0.3092026-08-31: 0.3092026-09-01: 0.3092026-09-02: 0.303 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 28.4%4-Seam Fastball: 26.9%Curveball: 22.0%Sinker: 16.3%Cutter: 6.4% ST28% · 87 mphprimary pitch ST 28%FF 27%CU 22%SI 16%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.5 mphST87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.5 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.6 mphCU83 mphSinker: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.0% 417 102 qualified
FB 27.2% 406 106 qualified
CB 22.1% 330 104 qualified
SI 15.6% 232 107 qualified
FC 7.0% 105 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Curveball 22%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.06
K% Δ+0.076
Sample170.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.9----
Batters Faced612----
K%24.8%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.9%7.7% to 12.5%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%25.0%21.9% to 29.9%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.240.83 to 1.91+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3220.279 to 0.346+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed7.8%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.782.24 to 5.19+/- 1.48
FIP4.132.92 to 5.82+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3801.106 to 1.563+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

760 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%23.2%
BB%11.5%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

696 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%22.4%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%