Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Williams, Gavin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
20.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.07
ERA rolling p503.31
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.25 2.75 3.31 3.87 4.37
FIP
2.65 3.15 3.70 4.25 4.74
K%
24.2% 25.5% 27.0% 28.4% 29.7%
BB%
6.7% 7.3% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
71 +37 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.8%
11 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed48.6%
6
K%28.5%
85 +18 vs proj
Whiff%28.7%
85 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.319
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3272026-05-19: 0.3312026-05-21: 0.3312026-05-23: 0.3232026-05-24: 0.3232026-05-25: 0.3222026-05-26: 0.3222026-05-28: 0.3222026-05-29: 0.3192026-05-30: 0.3192026-05-31: 0.3192026-06-01: 0.319 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Sweeper: 27.0%Curveball: 21.4%Sinker: 15.3%Cutter: 8.8% MIX FF 27%ST 27%CU 21%SI 15%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.3FFST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.0STCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.5CUSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.7SIFC: HB -0.2, IVB 2.1FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.0% 300 103 qualified
SL 26.2% 292 102 qualified
CB 22.5% 250 104 qualified
SI 15.7% 175 107 limited sample
FC 8.6% 96 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Curveball 22%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ+0.036
Sample84.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.1----
Batters Faced613----
K%24.8%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.9%7.7% to 12.5%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%25.0%21.9% to 29.9%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.240.83 to 1.91+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3220.279 to 0.346+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed7.8%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.782.24 to 5.19+/- 1.48
FIP4.132.92 to 5.82+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3801.106 to 1.563+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

760 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%23.2%
BB%11.5%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

696 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%22.4%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%