Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Williams, Gavin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
20.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-18
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.76
60
BB%8.0%
63
K%34.1%
98
xwOBA allowed0.295
73
Barrel allowed10.5%
9
Fastball velo97.5
91
Hard-hit allowed45.7%
7
Whiff%31.7%
96
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-18
Curveball Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+108
88
Slider Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+105
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.295 2026-10-07: 0.3002026-10-08: 0.3002026-10-09: 0.3012026-10-10: 0.3012026-10-11: 0.2982026-10-12: 0.2982026-10-13: 0.2982026-10-14: 0.2982026-10-15: 0.2982026-10-16: 0.2952026-10-17: 0.2952026-10-18: 0.295 2026-10-07 2026-10-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 28.9%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Knuckle Curve: 22.3%Sinker: 15.2%Cutter: 5.7% ST29% · 88 mphprimary pitch ST 29%FF 28%KC 22%SI 15%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.5 mphST88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 82.6 mphKC83 mphSinker: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.8% 533 102 qualified
FB 27.7% 513 106 qualified
CB 22.4% 414 103 qualified
SI 14.9% 276 108 qualified
FC 6.1% 113 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Curveball 22%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample207.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.4----
Batters Faced619----
K%24.8%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.9%7.7% to 12.5%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%25.0%21.9% to 29.9%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.240.83 to 1.91+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3220.279 to 0.346+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed7.8%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.782.24 to 5.19+/- 1.48
FIP4.132.92 to 5.82+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3791.105 to 1.563+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

760 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%23.2%
BB%11.5%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

696 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%22.4%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%