Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Williams, Gavin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
20.0% to 29.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.81
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight68%
ERA
2.65 3.18 3.76 4.34 4.87
FIP
2.79 3.31 3.88 4.45 4.97
K%
25.1% 26.2% 27.4% 28.7% 29.8%
BB%
6.8% 7.5% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
71
ERA3.81
55
BB%7.6%
66 +33 vs proj
K%28.7%
87 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
40
Barrel allowed11.4%
9 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed47.6%
5
Whiff%28.1%
85 +20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+109
95
Slider Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.324 2026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3222026-07-12: 0.3222026-07-13: 0.3222026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3242026-07-17: 0.3242026-07-18: 0.324 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 27.2%4-Seam Fastball: 23.2%Curveball: 21.9%Sinker: 18.6%Cutter: 9.0% ST27% · 87 mphprimary pitch ST 27%FF 23%CU 22%SI 19%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.3 mphST87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.7 mphCU83 mphSinker: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphCutter: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.2% 316 102 qualified
FB 26.1% 315 104 qualified
CB 21.9% 265 103 qualified
SI 17.2% 208 109 qualified
FC 8.6% 104 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Curveball 22%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ+0.038
Sample120.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.8----
Batters Faced616----
K%24.8%20.0% to 29.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.9%7.7% to 12.5%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%25.0%21.9% to 29.9%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.240.83 to 1.91+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3220.279 to 0.346+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed7.8%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.782.24 to 5.19+/- 1.48
FIP4.132.92 to 5.82+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3801.106 to 1.563+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

760 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%23.2%
BB%11.5%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

696 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%22.4%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%