Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Ashcraft, Graham

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
14.5% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching8 metrics
57
Arsenal3 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.18 3.00 3.92 4.84 5.66
FIP
2.39 2.97 3.61 4.26 4.84
K%
19.4% 21.7% 24.3% 26.9% 29.2%
BB%
8.2% 9.4% 10.9% 12.3% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
61
ERA3.33
68
BB%14.3%
6 -45 vs proj
K%30.3%
93 +50 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.287
75 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
39 -19 vs proj
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
17
Whiff%30.9%
94 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Cutter Stuff+98
16
Slider Stuff+108
90
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashcraft, Graham · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.287 2026-07-08: 0.2872026-07-09: 0.2872026-07-10: 0.2872026-07-11: 0.2872026-07-12: 0.2872026-07-13: 0.2872026-07-14: 0.2872026-07-15: 0.2872026-07-16: 0.2872026-07-17: 0.2872026-07-18: 0.2872026-07-19: 0.287 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashcraft, Graham · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Graham · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 51.1%Slider: 48.9% FC51% · 98 mphprimary pitch FC 51%SL 49% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashcraft, Graham · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Cutter: 51% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.0 mphFC98 mphSlider: 49% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 90.6 mphSL91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 51.3% 231 98 qualified
SL 48.7% 219 108 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 55%, Slider 45%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.97
K% Δ+0.088
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings44.7----
Batters Faced197----
K%21.5%14.5% to 28.3%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.6%5.0% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%24.8%20.0% to 31.7%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.120.57 to 2.09+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3170.277 to 0.383+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.1% to 10.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.302.48 to 7.17+/- 2.35
FIP4.032.78 to 6.17+/- 1.70
WHIP1.4271.132 to 1.848+/- 0.358
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

834 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%17.9%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

977 career BF

xwOBA0.319
K%18.6%
BB%7.8%
Barrel6.8%