Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Romero, JoJo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.81
ERA rolling p503.37
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.81 2.55 3.37 4.19 4.93
FIP
1.75 2.61 3.57 4.53 5.39
K%
18.5% 20.7% 23.2% 25.6% 27.8%
BB%
5.6% 6.9% 8.4% 9.9% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
51
Barrel allowed6.7%
66
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed45.3%
15
K%24.3%
62
Whiff%22.0%
42 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
36 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Romero, JoJo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3342026-05-19: 0.3342026-05-21: 0.3402026-05-23: 0.3402026-05-24: 0.3402026-05-25: 0.3402026-05-26: 0.3402026-05-28: 0.3342026-05-29: 0.3342026-05-30: 0.3342026-05-31: 0.3312026-06-01: 0.331 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Romero, JoJo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 22%22%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Romero, JoJo · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.8%Sweeper: 37.4%Changeup: 17.6%4-Seam Fastball: 2.2% MIX SI 43%ST 37%CH 18%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Romero, JoJo · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.3, IVB 2.5SIST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.4STCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.1CHFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.5FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.3% 182 101 limited sample
SL 37.2% 160 113 limited sample
CH 18.1% 78 93 limited sample
FB 2.3% 10 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 37%, Sinker 32%, Changeup 22%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.80
K% Δ+0.020
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.2----
Batters Faced165----
K%22.4%17.4% to 30.2%+/- 6.4%
BB%8.6%5.2% to 13.0%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.3%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.150.26 to 1.62+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3100.263 to 0.357+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.9% to 12.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.610.87 to 5.04+/- 2.08
FIP3.682.33 to 7.20+/- 2.43
WHIP1.2360.955 to 1.568+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

310 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%24.4%
BB%7.5%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHH

550 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%