Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Romero, JoJo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.4% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace3.35
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.01 2.71 3.48 4.26 4.95
FIP
1.93 2.75 3.65 4.56 5.37
K%
20.1% 21.8% 23.6% 25.5% 27.2%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.8% 9.0% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
76
ERA3.35
73
BB%7.4%
71 +18 vs proj
K%24.6%
68 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.313
49
Barrel allowed7.7%
45
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%20.3%
29 -43 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+114
100
Changeup Stuff+91
6
Fastball Stuff+95
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Romero, JoJo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.313 2026-10-04: 0.3232026-10-05: 0.3222026-10-06: 0.3222026-10-07: 0.3172026-10-08: 0.3172026-10-09: 0.3172026-10-10: 0.3172026-10-11: 0.3172026-10-12: 0.3172026-10-13: 0.3132026-10-14: 0.3132026-10-15: 0.313 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Romero, JoJo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Romero, JoJo · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.1%Sweeper: 36.8%Changeup: 16.6%4-Seam Fastball: 1.5% SI45% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 45%ST 37%CH 17%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Romero, JoJo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 45% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 37% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 44.1% 287 102 qualified
SL 37.3% 243 114 qualified
CH 16.9% 110 91 limited sample
FB 1.7% 11 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 37%, Sinker 32%, Changeup 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.25
K% Δ+0.023
Sample61.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.3----
Batters Faced170----
K%22.4%17.4% to 30.2%+/- 6.4%
BB%8.6%5.2% to 13.0%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.3%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.220.27 to 1.71+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3100.263 to 0.356+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.9% to 12.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.600.87 to 5.03+/- 2.08
FIP3.702.33 to 7.20+/- 2.43
WHIP1.2160.941 to 1.543+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

310 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%24.4%
BB%7.5%
Barrel4.3%
vs RHH

550 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%