Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Cutter 20%, Slider 17%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Myers, Tobias
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.90 |
| ERA current pace | 3.62 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.79 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
ERA
2.87
3.31
3.79
4.28
4.72
FIP
3.90
4.15
4.42
4.70
4.94
K%
17.9%
19.3%
20.9%
22.5%
24.0%
BB%
5.0%
5.8%
6.7%
7.6%
8.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
77
Barrel allowed6.6%
67
+28 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
24
Hard-hit allowed43.4%
26
K%20.8%
38
Whiff%17.6%
11
xwOBA allowed0.291
70
+37 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 65.1% | 229 | 111 | qualified |
| SL | 20.5% | 72 | 97 | limited sample |
| FC | 14.5% | 51 | 100 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.83 |
| K% Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 36.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 71.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 311 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.6% | 17.5% to 25.8% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 19.3% | 17.3% to 24.5% | +/- 3.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.89 to 2.04 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.334 | 0.292 to 0.360 | +/- 0.034 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.7% to 11.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.45 | 2.61 to 5.16 | +/- 1.28 |
| FIP | 4.19 | 3.37 to 4.80 | +/- 0.72 |
| WHIP | 1.330 | 1.096 to 1.593 | +/- 0.248 |
vs LHH
402 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHH
456 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |