Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Hollowell, Gavin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
12.0% to 28.1%
Live Δ
--
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
93
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
93
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Sinker Stuff+113
100
Slider Stuff+107
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hollowell, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hollowell, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.0%Sweeper: 32.5%Sinker: 21.9%Changeup: 8.7% FF37% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 37%ST 32%SI 22%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hollowell, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 32% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.3 mphST84 mphSinker: 22% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.5% 35 107 limited sample
SL 36.4% 28 107 limited sample
SI 13.0% 10 113 limited sample
CH 5.2% 4 134 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sweeper 34%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.0----
Batters Faced134----
K%23.6%12.0% to 28.1%+/- 8.0%
BB%10.2%6.4% to 15.2%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%22.9%16.0% to 29.5%+/- 6.8%
HR/91.450.51 to 2.37+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.3070.240 to 0.356+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.4% to 10.4%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.871.79 to 6.54+/- 2.37
FIP4.282.73 to 5.76+/- 1.51
WHIP1.2090.975 to 1.713+/- 0.369
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

100 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%15.1%
BB%10.4%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%16.2%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.7%