Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Legumina, Casey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.6% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.99
ERA rolling p504.27
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.59 3.39 4.27 5.16 5.96
FIP
2.94 3.39 3.89 4.39 4.84
K%
17.0% 18.5% 20.2% 22.0% 23.5%
BB%
5.1% 6.1% 7.2% 8.3% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
70
ERA3.99
52
BB%5.7%
92 +44 vs proj
K%17.9%
19 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.319
41
Barrel allowed6.7%
60 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
62
Whiff%18.4%
15 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+93
9
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+106
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Legumina, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-08-20: 0.3232026-08-21: 0.3232026-08-22: 0.3232026-08-23: 0.3232026-08-24: 0.3232026-08-25: 0.3232026-08-26: 0.3232026-08-27: 0.3222026-08-28: 0.3222026-08-29: 0.3222026-08-30: 0.3222026-08-31: 0.319 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Legumina, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.5%Sinker: 21.9%Sweeper: 12.4%Slider: 12.1%Changeup: 10.1% FF43% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 43%SI 22%ST 12%SL 12%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSinker: 22% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 79.8 mphST80 mphSlider: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.0 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.1% 192 106 limited sample
SL 26.7% 119 106 limited sample
SI 20.9% 93 106 limited sample
CH 9.2% 41 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.290 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.74
K% Δ-0.049
Sample62.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced285----
K%22.8%17.6% to 29.7%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.1%5.7% to 13.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%15.3% to 25.2%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.42+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3330.260 to 0.375+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.8% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.732.79 to 7.55+/- 2.38
FIP4.192.77 to 5.47+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3921.148 to 1.769+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.1%
BB%11.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

186 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%