Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Rolison, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
9.5% to 22.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.55
Observed weight48%
ERA
1.84 2.65 3.55 4.44 5.25
FIP
3.26 3.79 4.39 4.98 5.52
K%
15.6% 17.4% 19.3% 21.3% 23.1%
BB%
8.0% 9.0% 10.1% 11.2% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
62
ERA2.98
82
BB%10.7%
29 -19 vs proj
K%21.9%
48 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed6.8%
60 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%18.7%
17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+105
79
Slider Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rolison, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-08-25: 0.3142026-08-26: 0.3142026-08-27: 0.3142026-08-28: 0.3142026-08-29: 0.3142026-08-30: 0.3162026-08-31: 0.3162026-09-01: 0.3252026-09-02: 0.3252026-09-03: 0.3202026-09-04: 0.3202026-09-05: 0.320 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rolison, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.5%Curveball: 17.4%Sweeper: 14.6%Slider: 13.9%Sinker: 11.5%Changeup: 1.1% FF41% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CU 17%ST 15%SL 14%SI 12%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.2 mphST85 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphSinker: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.9 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.3% 217 97 qualified
SL 28.2% 152 105 limited sample
CB 18.2% 98 104 limited sample
SI 11.9% 64 105 limited sample
CH 1.5% 8 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.311 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Curveball 33%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.61
K% Δ+0.050
Sample53.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced305----
K%16.8%9.5% to 22.4%+/- 6.5%
BB%9.1%6.6% to 13.0%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%19.5%14.5% to 24.3%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.370.60 to 2.53+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3140.262 to 0.334+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.571.82 to 6.63+/- 2.41
FIP4.793.30 to 6.49+/- 1.60
WHIP1.4901.119 to 1.882+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%11.3%
BB%8.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

146 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%10.8%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.3%