Rolison, Ryan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.08 |
| ERA current pace | 3.24 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.87 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 45.7% | 133 | 94 | limited sample |
| SL | 30.9% | 90 | 108 | limited sample |
| CB | 18.9% | 55 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 2.4% | 7 | 89 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.1% | 6 | 113 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 301 | -- | -- |
| K% | 16.8% | 9.5% to 22.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 6.6% to 13.0% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 19.5% | 14.5% to 24.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.60 to 2.53 | +/- 0.96 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.314 | 0.262 to 0.334 | +/- 0.036 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.3% to 11.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.56 | 1.82 to 6.63 | +/- 2.41 |
| FIP | 4.79 | 3.30 to 6.49 | +/- 1.60 |
| WHIP | 1.489 | 1.119 to 1.882 | +/- 0.382 |
105 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |
146 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.311 |
| K% | 10.8% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |