Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Rolison, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
9.5% to 22.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-20
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace2.80
ERA rolling p503.59
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.84 2.67 3.59 4.51 5.33
FIP
3.22 3.77 4.38 4.99 5.54
K%
15.6% 17.7% 20.0% 22.3% 24.3%
BB%
7.9% 9.0% 10.3% 11.5% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
46
ERA2.80
81
BB%11.4%
20 -25 vs proj
K%24.8%
67 +54 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
52
Barrel allowed6.5%
68 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
52
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
21
Whiff%18.9%
17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-20
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Fastball Stuff+96
17
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rolison, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3082026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3152026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.3152026-07-17: 0.3152026-07-18: 0.3152026-07-19: 0.3122026-07-20: 0.312 2026-07-09 2026-07-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rolison, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Curveball: 19.6%Slider: 19.0%Sweeper: 10.3%Sinker: 5.6%Changeup: 1.4% FF44% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CU 20%SL 19%ST 10%SI 6%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.3 mphST85 mphSinker: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.8% 150 96 limited sample
SL 30.7% 103 107 limited sample
CB 20.3% 68 102 limited sample
SI 2.4% 8 90 limited sample
CH 1.8% 6 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.311 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Curveball 33%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.76
K% Δ+0.080
Sample35.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.4----
Batters Faced302----
K%16.8%9.5% to 22.4%+/- 6.5%
BB%9.1%6.6% to 13.0%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%19.5%14.5% to 24.3%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.370.60 to 2.53+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3140.262 to 0.334+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.561.82 to 6.63+/- 2.41
FIP4.793.30 to 6.49+/- 1.60
WHIP1.4891.119 to 1.882+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%11.3%
BB%8.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

146 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%10.8%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.3%