Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Gore, MacKenzie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.7% K%
Range
21.5% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.01
ERA current pace4.42
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.11 3.64 4.23 4.82 5.35
FIP
3.15 3.43 3.75 4.06 4.34
K%
22.4% 23.8% 25.3% 26.7% 28.1%
BB%
8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.5% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
29 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
37
Fastball velo95.4
69
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
17
K%24.6%
64
Whiff%22.2%
44 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gore, MacKenzie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3192026-05-19: 0.3192026-05-21: 0.3162026-05-23: 0.3162026-05-24: 0.3162026-05-25: 0.3102026-05-26: 0.3102026-05-28: 0.3102026-05-29: 0.3102026-05-30: 0.3102026-05-31: 0.3152026-06-01: 0.315 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gore, MacKenzie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.4%Curveball: 22.1%Changeup: 11.1%Slider: 9.1%Cutter: 8.0%Sinker: 6.3% MIX FF 43%CU 22%CH 11%SL 9%FC 8%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.2FFCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.4CUCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.2CHSL: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8SLFC: HB 0.2, IVB 2.2FCSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.4SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.3% 414 106 qualified
CB 22.6% 216 102 qualified
CH 10.9% 104 97 limited sample
SL 8.9% 85 99 limited sample
FC 7.8% 75 97 limited sample
SI 6.5% 62 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Curveball 24%, Slider 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.43
K% Δ-0.011
Sample69.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.2----
Batters Faced643----
K%25.7%21.5% to 31.1%+/- 4.8%
BB%8.6%6.7% to 11.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.6%23.0% to 31.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.83 to 1.95+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3040.279 to 0.345+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.7% to 12.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.54 to 5.69+/- 1.57
FIP3.912.88 to 4.55+/- 0.83
WHIP1.2961.104 to 1.676+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

636 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%25.0%
BB%8.8%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1876 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%24.0%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%