Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Gore, MacKenzie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.7% K%
Range
21.4% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.01
ERA current pace4.31
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.99 3.58 4.23 4.88 5.47
FIP
3.07 3.38 3.73 4.07 4.38
K%
23.4% 24.3% 25.4% 26.4% 27.4%
BB%
7.8% 8.3% 9.0% 9.6% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
61
ERA4.31
42
BB%9.1%
49
K%25.1%
71
xwOBA allowed0.303
63
Barrel allowed8.2%
37
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
28
Whiff%24.4%
61 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Cutter Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Slider Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gore, MacKenzie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-08-23: 0.3032026-08-24: 0.3032026-08-25: 0.3022026-08-26: 0.3022026-08-27: 0.3052026-08-28: 0.3052026-08-29: 0.3052026-08-30: 0.3052026-08-31: 0.3052026-09-01: 0.3052026-09-02: 0.3032026-09-03: 0.303 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gore, MacKenzie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.5%Curveball: 18.6%Changeup: 12.8%Slider: 10.1%Cutter: 6.7%Sinker: 5.3% FF46% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 46%CU 19%CH 13%SL 10%FC 7%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 86.3 mphCH86 mphSlider: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSinker: 5% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.5% 799 104 qualified
CB 19.0% 327 102 qualified
CH 13.4% 230 99 qualified
SL 9.6% 165 100 limited sample
FC 6.5% 112 99 limited sample
SI 5.1% 87 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Curveball 24%, Slider 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.32
K% Δ-0.005
Sample162.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.4----
Batters Faced653----
K%25.7%21.4% to 31.1%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.6%6.7% to 11.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.6%23.0% to 31.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.83 to 1.95+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3040.279 to 0.344+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.7% to 12.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.54 to 5.68+/- 1.57
FIP3.912.88 to 4.59+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2961.104 to 1.676+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

636 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%25.0%
BB%8.8%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1876 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%24.0%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%