Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Wilson, Bryse

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.34
ERA current pace4.25
ERA rolling p504.31
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.97 3.60 4.31 5.01 5.65
FIP
2.87 3.33 3.84 4.35 4.81
K%
15.6% 17.3% 19.1% 20.9% 22.5%
BB%
3.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.9% 6.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
56
ERA4.25
43
BB%2.1%
100 +25 vs proj
K%20.7%
40 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +45 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.8%
97 +62 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
21
Hard-hit allowed46.8%
5
Whiff%15.3%
4
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+98
26
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Cutter Stuff+102
54
Fastball Stuff+96
17
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wilson, Bryse · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-08-20: 0.3192026-08-21: 0.3192026-08-22: 0.3192026-08-23: 0.3192026-08-24: 0.3192026-08-25: 0.3142026-08-26: 0.3142026-08-27: 0.3092026-08-28: 0.3092026-08-29: 0.3092026-08-30: 0.3092026-08-31: 0.303 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wilson, Bryse · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 57%57%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilson, Bryse · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 35.5%Sinker: 31.0%4-Seam Fastball: 17.6%Split-Finger: 8.1%Curveball: 7.1%Changeup: 0.8% FC35% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 35%SI 31%FF 18%FS 8%CU 7%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wilson, Bryse · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mphSinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 8% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.3 mphFS85 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.0 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 37.5% 72 102 limited sample
SI 34.4% 66 105 limited sample
FB 16.1% 31 96 limited sample
CB 6.2% 12 99 limited sample
CH 5.7% 11 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.356 vs 0.320 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 24%, Sinker 24%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.76
K% Δ+0.030
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.1----
Batters Faced317----
K%17.7%14.3% to 24.0%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.2%4.5% to 9.5%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%18.1%15.2% to 23.4%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.680.79 to 2.30+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3460.299 to 0.398+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.0% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA5.002.52 to 6.20+/- 1.84
FIP4.953.28 to 5.93+/- 1.33
WHIP1.3981.102 to 1.623+/- 0.261
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1001 career BF

xwOBA0.356
K%16.1%
BB%8.2%
Barrel8.9%
vs RHH

1203 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%18.0%
BB%4.7%
Barrel7.8%