Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Estrada, Jeremiah

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.9% K%
Range
27.1% to 42.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.00
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.78 2.65 3.61 4.58 5.45
FIP
2.37 2.83 3.34 3.84 4.30
K%
27.8% 30.6% 33.8% 37.0% 39.8%
BB%
6.6% 8.2% 9.9% 11.7% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
22
Barrel allowed7.8%
48
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
63
K%31.5%
94
Whiff%32.5%
95
xwOBA allowed0.293
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

5 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Estrada, Jeremiah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.2982026-05-30: 0.2982026-05-31: 0.2892026-06-01: 0.293 2026-05-28 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Estrada, Jeremiah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.8%Split-Finger: 33.0%Slider: 11.1% MIX FF 56%FS 33%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.9FFFS: HB -0.2, IVB 2.8FSSL: HB -0.4, IVB 3.0SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 85.1% 165 107 limited sample
SL 14.9% 29 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.25
K% Δ-0.004
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced171----
K%31.9%27.1% to 42.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%9.8%5.3% to 14.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%30.8%26.6% to 38.5%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.180.63 to 2.23+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2790.214 to 0.350+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.251.35 to 6.07+/- 2.36
FIP3.251.99 to 4.46+/- 1.23
WHIP1.1290.921 to 1.615+/- 0.347
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

277 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%31.0%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

405 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%33.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.7%