Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

May, Dustin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
16.7% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal7 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace4.70
ERA rolling p504.55
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.36 3.92 4.55 5.17 5.74
FIP
2.85 3.25 3.69 4.13 4.53
K%
20.5% 21.5% 22.6% 23.6% 24.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
50
ERA4.70
33
BB%8.0%
63
K%22.8%
56 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
36
Barrel allowed7.5%
49
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%21.1%
37 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Cutter Stuff+105
82
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+106
84
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed May, Dustin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.323 2026-10-04: 0.3232026-10-05: 0.3232026-10-06: 0.3232026-10-07: 0.3242026-10-08: 0.3242026-10-09: 0.3242026-10-10: 0.3242026-10-11: 0.3242026-10-12: 0.3242026-10-13: 0.3232026-10-14: 0.3232026-10-15: 0.323 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile May, Dustin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3%Cutter: 23.8%Sinker: 20.5%Sweeper: 17.7%Curveball: 7.6%Changeup: 6.1% FF24% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 24%FC 24%SI 20%ST 18%CU 8%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.4 mphFC93 mphSinker: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.1 mphST86 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 83.7 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphPO96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 24.2% 370 106 qualified
FC 24.0% 366 105 qualified
SI 21.1% 322 108 qualified
SL 17.0% 259 106 qualified
CB 8.4% 129 101 limited sample
CH 5.3% 81 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.34
K% Δ+0.024
Sample151.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.5----
Batters Faced313----
K%20.4%16.7% to 26.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 11.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.5%15.0% to 23.3%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.320.63 to 1.95+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3180.280 to 0.375+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.353.14 to 6.18+/- 1.52
FIP4.373.20 to 5.35+/- 1.08
WHIP1.3741.082 to 1.590+/- 0.254
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

813 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%19.2%
BB%10.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

764 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%17.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%